Tourism in South-East Asia: is India “the next China”?

KBS World Radio’s German service quotes Reuters / the Asian Development Bank as reporting that “India could develop into the next China” on the global travel market within the next ten years. The travel and tourism industry is said to have had a share of twelve percent^*) in South-East Asia’s GDP before the Covid-19 pandemic. The OECD is quoted as saying that about 40 million people in the region work in the tourism and travel sector.

Reception report: KBS, 3955 kHz

In May, the number of Chinese tourists was by 60 percent lower month-on-month than in May 2019 and it is showing only weak signs of recovery. At the same time, KBS quotes Reuters, the number of Indian tourists is only down about 14 percent year-on-year, although their absolute number remains smaller than that of Chinese tourists. The Thai government is quoted as saying that Chinese tourists in the country spent about 197 dollars a day, Indian tourists spent about 180 dollars per day. Their stays were all about one week.

Also in May, Singapore saw more Indian than Chinese tourists, and in Indonesia, it was India 63,000 : 64,000 China.

For Indians, visa are reportedly easier to obtain from South-East Asian countries, than from Europe or the U.S.. Also, the neighboring region counts as a more comfortable and closer travel destination.

Radio Thailand reported in October last year that “high hopes” were placed on Indian tourists, detailing that there had been 600,000 visitors from India since borders reopened in July (compared to ten million Chinese visitors during all of 2019).
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Note

*)	In the “landmark year” of 2019, Thailand’s tourism sector contributed 20% of the country’s GDP to the country’s GDP, according to Radio Thailand.

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China, Russia, Indonesia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Jakarta, July 12

The following are three newsitems – the first from Sputnik’s Chinese website, quoting statistics on Russian-Chinese trade. The second and third items are about the meeting of China’s, Russia’s and Indonesia’s foreign ministers in Jakarta, on July 12, in the ASEAN dialogue partners framework of the 56th ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting. The first two newsitems are my translations, the third is my copy-and-paste of the English-language release of Indonesia’s foreign ministry.
Links within blockquotes added during translation.

Sputnik News, July 13

Sputnik newsagency, Beijing, July 13 — According to statistical data published by China’s General Administration of Customs, Sino-Russian trade volume rose by 40.6 percent year on year from January to June, reaching 114.55 billion US dollars.
俄罗斯卫星通讯社北京7月13日电 据中国海关总署7月13日发布的统计数据显示，2023年1-6月，中俄贸易额同比增长40.6%，达到1145.47亿美元。
–
Among these numbers, Chinese exports to Russia was at 52.28 billion US dollars, rising by 78.1 percent, and Chinese imports from Russia was at 62.26 billion US dollars, a rise by 19.4 percent.
根据统计，2023年1-6月，中俄贸易额为1145.47亿美元，同比增长40.6%。其中，中国对俄出口522.84亿美元，增长78.1%；中国自俄进口622.63亿美元，增长19.4%。

–

Chinese foreign ministry release, July 12

PRC Consulate, St. Petersburg, July 12 — On July 12, 2023 local time, China, Russia and Indonesia held a trilateral meeting.
当地时间2023年7月12日，中国、俄罗斯、印尼在雅加达举行三方会晤。
–
Central Foreign Affairs Office director Wang Yi took part in the meeting. Wang Yi said that momentous changes were picking up pace in today’s world, global economic recovery remained weak, geopolitical tensions were intensifying, but the tide of seeking peace, promoting development and seeking cooperation were unobstructable, and global multi-polarization, economic globalization and the democratization of international relations remained the an irresistable trend. There is an urgent need for all countries to strengthen unity and coordination,  to practice true multilateralism, to respond to risks and to challenges, to join hands to build a community of common destiny of mankind¹⁾. All being representatives of the newly-emerging markets and members of the G20, it is in China’s, Russia’s and Indonesia’s common interest to develop exchange and cooperation, it helps to promote the process of multilateralism, and advances regional peace and stability. As a dialogue partner²⁾ of ASEAN, China supports the regional framework of cooperation with ASEAN at the center, every ASEAN member country’s firm hold on to the correct direction of east Asian cooperation, and the accelerated building of the ASEAN community.
中央外办主任王毅出席会议。王毅表示，当今世界百年变局加速演进，世界经济复苏乏力，地缘局势紧张加剧，但求和平、促发展、谋合作的潮流不可阻挡，世界多极化、经济全球化、国际关系民主化仍是大势所趋。各国迫切需要加强团结协作，践行真正的多边主义，共同应对风险挑战，携手构建人类命运共同体。中国、俄罗斯和印尼同为新兴市场代表和二十国集团重要成员，开展交流合作符合三国共同利益，有助于推动多边主义进程，促进地区和平稳定。作为东盟对话伙伴，中方支持以东盟为中心的区域合作架构，支持东盟各国牢牢把握东亚合作正确方向，加快建设东盟共同体。
–
Russian foreign minister Lavrov and Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi presented their views on the current international and regional situation. They believed this meeting was a useful try in the trilateral dialogue, displaying the three parties’ consensus about upholding of ASEAN’s central role and the ASEAN way, and communication in this regard. The three parties also exchanged views on food and energy security and believed that globalization needed to be perfected, unimpeded supply chains be ensured, and food and energy security in developing countries be guaranteed.
俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫和印尼外长蕾特诺介绍了对当前国际和地区形势的看法，认为此次会晤是三方对话交流的有益尝试，展现了三方对维护东盟中心地位和东盟方式的共识，将继续就此保持沟通。三方还就粮食、能源安全交换了看法，认为应完善全球治理，确保供应链畅通，保障发展中国家粮食能源安全。

–

Indonesian foreign ministry release, July 12

(foreign minister Retno Marsudi’s opening address)

Excellency Wang Yi, Excellency Sergei Lavrov, welcome back to Jakarta.
Glad to meet you again, this time in trilateral format.
Indonesia is always open to engage and discuss with our partners with the hope that we can contribute to peace, stability and prosperity around the world.
And later today, I will have also a trilateral dialogue with India and Australia, and of course I will also have a bilateral strategic dialogue with the US.
In all dialogues, Indonesia is always firm and consistent in upholding international laws, and all values and principles of the UN Charter.
In today’s world full of challenges, we really need to have more dialogue and more collaboration.
Of course, I will make use of the opportunity of our meeting today to discuss especially what we can do together for peace, prosperity, stability of the world. And of course I’m willing also to discuss some ASEAN issues with you.
I’m looking forward to hearing and having a discussion with you.

–
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Notes

¹⁾ Also known as ” community of human destiny”

2)

ASEAN dialogue partners, according to the ASEAN webpage: Australia, Canada, China, European Union, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States. Among these, comprehensive strategic partnerships exist with Australia, China, India, and the United States.

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Headlines: Guanchazhe, Shanghai, July 24

Guanchazhe, headlines at 07:30 UTC

(1)	Actual Guanchazhe article there. Wikipedia has a useful article in English on Wentian space laboratory cabin module
(2)	Link
(3)	It’s more of a rant (you wouldn’t need academics for that, but it probably looks more authoratitve this way). The article may contain some news for you however if you believe that Western sanctions against Russia are happily supported (or admired) everywhere else in the world

Pete Myers, 1939 – 1998

December 15, this coming weekend, marks the 20th death anniversary of Pete Myers, probably the past century’s greatest radio personality without a Wikipedia entry of his own.

Here is an excerpt from one of his programs, broadcast on October 11, 1992, an official day of mourning in the Netherlands, one week after the Bijlmer disaster.

Beijing’s Reaction to Indo-Pacific Strategy: “China’s Rise isn’t isolated but heralds the Rise of the Asian Continent”

The following is a Huanqiu Shibao editorial, published online on Thursday, May 31. It may indicate a pattern of argument currently used by Chinese officials and “public diplomats”, in discussions with Indian counterparts – reminding the unloved southern neighbor of the need to restore Asia’s glory (and to put those small differences aside).
Links within blockquotes added during translation.

Original title
Editorial: Indo-Pacific Strategy wants to bury both China and India

社评：印太战略，想既埋中国又埋印度的坑

America announced on Wednesday that the United States Pacific Command will be renamed Indo-Pacific Command.
This is a plan that has been taking shape for a long time, but has given the common people a running gag when discussing America‘s Asian strategy. Washington now welcomes this attention.

美国星期三宣布将太平洋司令部改名为印度洋-太平洋司令部，这是早已透出的计划，但还是提供了世人谈论美国亚洲战略的一个噱头。华盛顿现在很欢迎这样的关注。

Apart from analyzing how much symbolic or practical significance this kind of renaming may have, many media follow American guidance, looking at it as Washington‘s emphasis on uniting with India, as one of the steps aimed at exerting more pressure on China.

除了分析这种改名有多少象征意义和多少实际意义，很多媒体顺着美方的引导，将这看成华盛顿重视并联合印度，向中国施加更大压力的步骤之一。

This is, of course, an important momentary American strategic consideration. However, we believe that Washington is looking at the next, bigger game. The Indo-Pacific strategy has two long-term objectives. One is to make China and India, the world‘s two largest emerging countries with a population of more than a billion, neutralize each other strategically. The second is to respond to and to plan ahead for the inevitable rise of India, and to make American control of the Indian
Ocean happen in time, thus keeping India from becoming a new challenge.

这当然是美国当下的重要战略考量。不过我们认为，华盛顿在下一盘更大的棋。印太战略有两个长远目标：一是要促成中印这两个世界上十亿人口以上新兴大国的长期相互战略消耗;二是为应对必将到来的印度崛起未雨绸缪，将美国加强对印度洋的控制提前变成现实，防止印度成为新的挑战。

China‘s rise is nothing isolated, but heralds the rise of the Asian continent. When history will look back at the 21rst century, the Sino-Indian rise will most probably be seen as two consecutive waves in the same major event. The nature of China‘s and India‘s rise is identical, with two underdeveloped countries moving to the front of global development, thus driving fairer rules for global economics and politics, and allowing people who have long found themselves trailing
behind to enjoy the benefits of modernization.

中国崛起不是孤立的，而是亚洲大陆崛起的先声。历史回望21世纪时，中印崛起很有可能被看成一个大事件的先后波次。中印崛起的本质都是一样的，那就是后发国家走向世界发展的前台，促使世界的经济和政治规则更加公平，让长期处在落后、贫困中的人们分享现代化的红利。

No matter if it is about China‘s or India‘s development, Westerners‘ true feelings are complicated. In the current stage, Western public opinion more supportive attitude towards Indian development at this stage comes from strategic thought that restrains taking advantage now. As India will continuously earn economic successes, Western public opinion‘s dislike of Indian development will surface in the end.

无论对中国发展，还是对印度发展，西方人的真实情感都很复杂。现阶段西方舆论对印度发展给予了更多支持，是地缘政治思维压住了利益计算的临时心态。随着印度不断获得经济成功，西方舆论对印度发展的反感终将浮上水面。

India‘s diplomacy may be sailing with tailwinds in the smoothest seas, but this won‘t last very long. If India‘s development turns out to be rather smooth, relations with the West will become highly complicated.

现在是印度外交最顺风顺水的时候，但这个时间不会很长。如果印度的发展比较顺利，或许20年后它与西方的关系就将高度复杂化。

For America, helping India and controlling China and promoting the mutual strategic neutralization of the two, is its best countermeasure to deal with Asia. Agitation for the Indo-Pacific strategy and American containment of China are two thoughts that raised their heads at about the same time. They are two aspects of almost the same strategic consideration. It can even be said that Washington and its main Asia-Pacific allies are working diligently and tirelessly at this. Also, this dream of theirs was almost put into reality at the Doklam standoff in summer 2017.

对美国来说，拉印制华，促使中印相互战略消耗，是其最佳的亚洲对策。鼓吹印太战略与美国遏制中国思维的抬头差不多同时发生，它们几乎是同一战略考量的不同侧面。华盛顿及其主要亚太盟友可谓对此孜孜以求，而且它们的这一愿望在2017年夏天的洞朗危机期间几乎就要实现了。

The Indian Ocean is increasingly turning into global navigation‘s center of gravity, but this area‘s structure of military strength is simple nevertheless. In future, more forces will enter this area, but provided that China and India maintain normal relations, the outstanding competition will probably not be Sino-Indian. America will inevitably play the leading role here, and also go to any length to act as the director, excluding any side that would share in the power.

印度洋越来越成为全球海上交通的重心，但该地区的军事力量格局则相对简单。未来会有更多力量介入该地区，但是只要中印保持正常关系，印度洋上最为突出的安全竞争就不太可能是中印之间的，美国必将是那场竞争的第一主角，而且它将竭尽全力充当主导者，排斥任何一方与它分享权力。

China has no military bases in the Indian Ocean, Indian public opinion is alerted by China‘s participation in building harbors in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. However, the Indian Ocean‘s only significance for China is in passage, while to America, it is a new front in consolidating its global hegemony. A far-sighted view can see the main contradictions on the Indian Ocean inevitably occurring between America and India.

中国在印度洋没有军事基地，印度舆论目前对中国在斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦参与港口建设充满警惕。然而印度洋对于中国的唯一意义是通道，但它是美国巩固全球霸权的新的主阵地。往远了看印度洋上的主要矛盾必将在美国和印度之间发生。

The importance of America‘s military base on Diego Garcia will continuously become more obvious. That base doesn‘t make China feel threatened in any way, but it will probably soon cause India increasing unease.

美国在印度洋上迪戈加西亚军事基地的要性将不断凸显出来，那个基地并不让中国感到什么威胁，但是印度方面大概很快就会对那个基地地位的提升而感到不安。

The Asian continent is facing two different prospects. One is that China and India will be successfully split by America, clash with each other, constitute restrictions on one another, neutralize each other, thus delaying their respective rise to different degrees. The second is that the two countries successfully resolve their disputes or set them aside, jointly promote an irreversible global trend of rising new emerging markets, which allows human society‘s development to obtain a fairer distribution, with Asia as a whole gradually entering modernization.

亚洲大陆面临两种前景：一是中印被美国成功分化，相互冲突，形成彼此牵制、消耗之势，双方的崛起都不同程度地延后;二是两国成功化解或搁置纠纷，共同推动新兴市场的崛起成为不可逆转的世界大势，使人类社会的发展权利得到更加公平的分配，亚洲作为一个整体逐渐步入现代化。

The Indo-Pacific strategy is a big pit, dug by America. Washington wants to bury both China‘s and India‘s rise in there. The anticipation of some American elites is to help India to push China into the pit and India helping to fill it, just to kick India into the next pit.

印太战略是美国挖的一个很大的坑，华盛顿想在这一个坑里同时埋葬中国崛起和印度崛起。一些美国精英的如意算盘是，先拉着印度一起把中国推到坑里，印度跟着填土，然后再把印度也踹进坑里。

Of course, this is the anticipation some Americans are dreaming of. From India‘s reactions to the Indo-Pacific strategy so far, it can easily be seen that there is an awareness in New Delhi that India will, in the end, earn very little from this strategy.

当然了，这是一些美国人梦一般的如意算盘。从印度迄今对印太战略的反应中不难看出，新德里是存了一个心眼的，印度最终被美国这一战略俘获的可能性很小。

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Related

“Confluence of the Two Seas”, East-West Center, May 9, 2018
(Shorter) GT English version of Huanqiu article, May 31, 2018

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Dalai Lama and Barack Obama meeting in New Delhi

Heads of state and government (apparently) can’t always afford to be polite – not if this CS Monitor report of nearly eight years ago is something to go by. In February 2010, the Dalai Lama, as he left the White House after a meeting with then president Barack Obama, was reportedly “awaited” by “a mound of trash”. A White House spokesman contested the interpretation – see same CS Monitor page.

But there were other downgradings, too, at the time. Obama met Tibet’s spiritual leader in the “map room” of the White House, not in the Oval Office. An ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) reporter interpreted this – most probably accurately – as a concession to China, which had demanded that the meeting not even go ahead.

Aller, Nov 2017

But a wise man who works to better the lot of the People won’t fear the height of a mountain or the width of a river on his way to gain worldly credit.

It will be left to reason here if Donald Trump is too high a mountain, or if meeting him, just like having met all US presidents from George H. W. Bush to Barack Obama while they were in office, wouldn’t benefit Tibet anyway.

There has been another meeting between the Dalai Lama and Barack Obama last Friday, and when you are travelling on behalf of your foundation that carries your name, meetings with the man Beijing loves to hate appear to make sense. The setting in New Delhi appears to have been nicer, too, than in the White House, in 2010.

The meeting apparently hasn’t generated a splash in the Chinese media. Overseas Chinese Website Duowei News, a news website operated from New York (and blocked in China, according to Wikipedia) points out that just before, Obama had completed a China visit, including a Meeting with Xi Jinping at Diaoyutai Guest House. Xinhua newsagency reported on Thursday that Xi and Obama held talks on November 29.

Duowei also adds some statistics, saying that this was the sixth meeting between the Dalai Lama and Obama, and that the most recent one had taken place at the White House, in July 2016, when Obama was still in office. (According to VoA, that was in June 2016.)

During an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) during a visit to Ottawa, the president of Tibet’s exile government in Dharamsala, Lobsang Sangay, advocated the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” policy.

China’s “Core Interests” are becoming peripheral

With the national security law, it has become even clearer that the term refers to what Chinese leaders see as three sacrosanct rights of the nation,

the New York Times (NYT) noted in July 2015:

maintaining the political system, with unquestioned rule by the Communist Party; defending sovereignty claims and territorial integrity; and economic development.

That represented “a considerable expansion” of China’s previous “core-interest” concept, which had been believed to refer to Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.

The NYT article described a history of expanding the concept. Earlier this year, probably under the flag of “economic-development core interest”, it has reached South Asia.

Arguing that most of India’s “peripheral countries are also Beijing’s neighbors”, a “Global Times” author wrote on March 21 this year that

When an increasing number of Chinese companies get established in these countries, it is inevitable that Beijing will boost defense collaboration with them to protect not only China’s, but also the region’s interest.

If India tried to “balance China” in the region, rather than being part of the pursuit of China and regional countries for common development, grave consequences would be in the pipeline:

If such tendencies in India continue, China will have to fight back, because its core interests will have been violated. This is not what we hope for, but the ball is in India’s court.

In short: with the core interest of economic development comes defense collaboration abroad.

The core is becoming peripheral.

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Related

Your Sea is our Sea, my Sea is my Sea, July 16, 2015
The Stupid Little Mermaid, March 12, 2009

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Dalai Lama: there’s a Chinese Constitution

Whereever I go, I do not wish to create trouble for politicians in charge. No worries. Actually, the purpose of my visits isn’t to meet politicians in charge, but to meet the public, or people. I have nothing to tell to the officials. I prefer to talk about happiness.

Why, surely you aren’t here to stirr trouble?

That’s how French daily Le Monde quoted the Dalai Lama, on September 10. Tibet’s spiritual leader did, however, have something to say to the Chinese leadership:

We don’t seek independence, we demand all the rights that are written down in the Chinese constitution.

It’s funny to be reminded that there is actually such a thing in China – a constitution.

According to Voice of Tibet (VoT), a Norway-based radio station and website, the custodians of the Chinese constitution were kept busy by the Dalai Lama’s visit to France, from September 12 to 18:

His Holiness’, the Dalai Lama’s visit to France received close attention from China. A joint photo with hotel staff and the Dalai Lama, posted by a Hyatt Group Hotel, immediately met with resistance from Chinese netizens who demanded that the hotel remove the online post. Also, students at Sciences Po protested against the recent cancellation of a speech by his Holiness and emphasized “the need to respect free speech”.

达赖喇嘛尊者访法行程受到中方密切关注，凯悦集团旗下饭店在网上刊出员工与尊者的合影后，立即有中国网友提出抗议，要求饭店删除该则贴文。另外，巴黎高政学生则对校方日前取消尊者演讲而表达抗议，强调“言论自由”应受到遵守。

Official receptions for the Dalai Lama on overseas trips from his exile in India have increasingly vexed the Chinese government, writes Radio France Internationale (RFI English service). But that is hardly accurate – efforts to isolate Tibet’s paramount monk have been part of Beijing’s policy ever since the beginning of his exile in India. And depending on China’s clout overseas, such efforts are sometimes highly successful.

The Dalai Lama didn’t get a visa to visit South Africa in 2009. A few weeks later, South African foreign minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane said that the Dalai Lama could visit South Africa anytime he wanted.

Anytime, except October 2014, of course. (Maite Nkoana-Mashabane was still South Africa’s foreign minister.)

As for the protests against the Hyatt hotel welcome for the Dalai Lama in Paris, VoT writes:

There were Chinese netizens unaware of the facts, who used propaganda content that had been directed against the Dalai Lama by the Chinese Communist Party for decades. They demanded that the removal of the online photo and said that if Hyatt wanted to continue business in China, they should not actively be in touch with this “splittist element”.

有不明真相的中国网友在该则贴文下，使用中共数十年来对西藏议题与达赖喇嘛尊者的不实宣传内容，向饭店表达抗议并要求删除这张照片，更表示：若凯悦集团希望在中国继续经营下去，就不该去主动接触这位“分裂份子”。

Today, on September 17, [the hotel] removed the text and photo from its Facebook page.

今天17日巴黎旺多姆帕悦酒店已从官方脸书上撤下该则贴文和照片。

Apparently, the Collège des Bernadins wasn’t quite that afraid of Beijing. On September 14, they hosted a meeting on inter-religious dialogue with the Dalai Lama.

(Maybe they’ve got a nice auberge for him, too, next time he visits France. He could be in need of one.)

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Updates / Related

» China threats after EU Parliament visit, Reuters, Sep 19, 2016
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