Posts tagged ‘foreign trade’

Friday, March 3, 2023

China’s Position: Ukraine still hopes for the Best

On February 27, Ukraine issued a rejection of sorts of China’s February 24 position paper “on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”. Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, told “Freedom TV”  that the only effective measure the position paper called for was “immediate cessation of fire.”

“This means that Russia will remain in the occupied territories, we will have a new dividing line, and we will have a slow absorption of Ukraine. That is, the slow death of Ukraine,” the TV station quoted Pdolyak.

The rejection from Zelensky’s office, but only in an unofficial interview, suggests that Kiev doesn’t want to anger Beijing and possibly provoke Chinese lethal-arms supplies to Russia that wouldn’t happen otherwise.

20230220_cctv_kuleba_wang_yi_munich中共中央外事工作委员会办公室主任王毅会见乌克兰外长库列巴,慕尼黑,Febr 18, 2023

In an article published on March 3, “Freedom TV” quotes interviewees as saying that “it is too early to say that China is openly opposing Ukraine”. China’s “global ambitions”, its long common border with Russia, and its dependence on Russian energy supplies as well as the two countries’ traditional alliance are quoted as factors supporting the bilateral relationship, but “Beijing will not sacrifice its own well-being because of Russia, experts are sure”.

Part of China’s “well-beings” is the arable land it owns in Ukraine. It shouldn’t be too difficult to replace, given that Beijing’s investment companies are scouting all continents for farmable land to buy or rent, but it wouldn’t be fun to see the goose being killed by Russia – even if it isn’t quite the “golden” goose.

Besides, at least one of “Voice of America’s” interlocutors, Taiwan International Strategic Study Society director Ching-Sheng Lo (羅慶生), took a rather critical view of China’s food security, a year ago.

Lo Ching-Sheng says: “Having bought that much grain, with storage for a year and a half, there’s nothing to care about – no problem in the short run. If this should turn into an Afghanistan kind of war of twenty years, China’s problems will be very big.”
罗庆生说:“因为中国买了太多粮食的关系,它储存了一年半的粮食,所以一年半之内它不会有事情,所以短期的话没问题。长期的话,如果说变成阿富汗战争那个样子打个20年,那中国的问题就很大了。”

But the Russian hinterland will count more than Ukraine – be it for China’s “global ambitions”, be it for its food security. Beijing took a speaking decision in early February, 2022, a few weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Answer to the unfolding crisis: more grain imports from Russia.

Ukraine’s hopes on China are unreasonably high. As Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote,

The party can survive setbacks in the chip war, but the stakes are much higher in the fight for food security. Failure on the food security front will threaten the survival of the regime.

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Related

Kuleba addresses Asia, March 22, 2022

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Wednesday, January 11, 2023

China is wary of new China Strategies – of course

German-Chinese relations are under review by Germany’s federal government – Beijing is worried

I actually wanted to ignore the visit to Taiwan by “Free Democrat” (FDP) members of Germany’s federal parliament. The FDP  would drop Taiwan like a hot potato if Xi Jinping put China’s state-owned enterprises up for international privatization. It is understandable that Taiwan welcomes foreign visits, this one included, but forget that talk about “friendship”.

That said, China’s ambassador to Germany, Wu Ken, makes sure that the German visit to Taiwan can’t be ignored – he’s making another fuss of it, in Germany’s business-friendly “Handelsblatt”, warning German politics “not to play with fire and not to test China’s red lines”. He is also worried that the German “traffic-light coalition”, consisting of Social Democrats, Greens, and the FDP (whose trademark color is yellow) would entirely follow America’s China policy.

The government's colors

The government’s colors

Nils Schmid, the Social Democrat parliament group’s spokesman on foreign affairs, says that he is “somewhat surprised” by Wu’s criticism. “The SPD parliamentary group demanded an adjustment of China policy, and the coalition agreement contains unambigious statements.”

The Chinese embassy has certainly laid its hands on one or several drafts of Berlin’s strategy papers. However, Schmid suggests that it must be a version that is several months old, and says that there is no final version yet. He adds that “contrary to China, where the state-controlled media certainly wouldn’t publish a similar criticism by foreign ambassadors, the Chinese ambassador has the opportunity to do so without being censored, around here.” This showed that there was systemic competition between China and democratic states after all.

Gyde Jensen, deputy chair of the FDP’s parliament group, says that Wu Ken’s answers show how fundamentally differently China interprets guiding liberal principles (“liberale Leitprinzipien”) and “bereaves them of their core concept, such as free markets, entrepreneurial freedom, human rights and multilateralism”. That alone was enough to explain why Germany needed a comprehensive China strategy, “for the record for everyone, China not least, to show how we see these principles and concepts and which action or rules we derive from them.” This included Germany’s interpretation of the “One-China policy”, concerning Taiwan.

China’s ambassador to Germany probably chose the “Handelsblatt” as an interlocutor not least because of its business-friendly position. However, by far not all German business is as involved in business with China as he appears to believe.

If it was up to Beijing, the Communist Party of China would determine China’s policy on Western countries, and business would continue to determine the West’s China policies. That was, of course, an extremely profitable arrangement for China, and it’s not really surprising that Beijing would like to keep it in place.

But every relationship, economically and politically, has to be in its stakeholders’ mutual interest (to borrow a Chinese slogan). Germany’s China policy will still be partly business-driven: if German business had got the “access” to Chinese markets it has long dreamed of, a tougher German policy on China would be almost inconceivable.

In that light, there is no reason to sing the praise of either Germany’s, America’s or any country’s government and their sudden attention for human rights et al. But there is reason to welcome their “tougher” policies. Depending on the “last versions” and their implementation, they may be in the national interest of our countries – at last.
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Related

“The Ukraine crisis it has triggered”, “China Daily”, Jan 10, 2023
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Thailand: “To compensate for the loss of Chinese Tourism Market”

The following is an excerpt from Radio Thailand’s business news last night (UTC). The program was in English.

20210000_radio_thailand
Better known as FM88 Radio Thailand now, but still on shortwave

Its info that high hopes are placed on Indian tourists, detailing that there have been 600,000 visitors from India since borders reopened in July (compared to ten million Chinese visitors during all of 2019) may or may not be indicative for the overall significance of India as a tourism market for Thailand, but I guess that if Chinese tourists remain absent for a long time, Chinese influence in Thailand could also suffer to some extent. “Zero-Covid” comes at costs, not only at home, but also abroad.

Words or word groups I didn’t understand have been replaced by brackets.

The tourism confidence survey index for the 4th quarter of this year is up 70 from 65 from the last quarter. There is an air of confidence according to the Tourism Council of Thailand that recently unveiled its latest quarterly industry confidence index. It [..] states that a strong recovery from the industry players has been signaled and that business is ready to reclaim its confidence. As one of the countries fastest-growing sector […]. The survey revealed that the industry’s confidence during the 3rd quarter 2022 was up 65, and was expected to rise to 70 for the 4th quarter, noting that the 4th quarter being the sector’s high season and its best time to recover. The Tourism Council of Thailand says it expects tourist numbers in 2022 to be around five million – about two million more than the expected target.

With the latest industry survey, there is a resurgence of confidence that the sector could return to pre-Covid levels by as early as next year, further announcing that the country’s tourism numbers returned to its 40 million mark previously experienced pre-Covid-19. During pre-pandemic era, Thailand’s peak capacity was 39.9 million tourists recorded in 2019. This was the landmark year, when the sector contributed 20% of the country’s GDP.

China was the single largest tourist segment for Thailand with more than 10 million visitors in 2019, which has continued to impose restrictions, unfortunately, on outbound tourists […] thus leaving Thailand to look for new markets. To compensate for the loss of Chinese tourism market, Thailand has managed to attract Indian tourists, where the pandemic has prompted more tourists now to visit the country. India’s tourists have become the second-largest group after Malaysia, with more than 600,000 visitors recorded since the reopening its borders in July.

The Tourism Council of Thailand reported that in its survey revealed that the country’s tourism industry service and [..] businesses have begun recovering, in terms of bottomline. Recent industry reported that hotel [revenues?] has started returning by as much as 40% of pre-Covid level, while 87% of the business were back in full operation. […] [Shortage of workforce also mentioned.]

Despite the positive outlook for the industry and the rebound of the sector, [possibility of] slowdown due to the rising interest rates and […] recession which could dampen travel demand. […]

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Related

Long Yongtu & the Smiling Curve, May 17, 2012
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Monday, October 10, 2022

President’s Double-Ten Speech 2022: Expect no Walk in the Park

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen looks ahead to her two remaining years in office. The following is an excerpt from her Double-Ten national day speech this morning (Monday), based on the presidential office’s Chinese text, and an English translation by CNA.

20221010_president_tsai_ing_wen
Double-Ten speech 2022, click picture for video

疫情沒有擊倒我們,反而讓世界看見了臺灣的韌性。我們不只守住了疫情,更把我們往前推進了一步,成為我們心中更好的國家。 Instead of holding us back, the pandemic has helped the world see Taiwan’s resilience. Not only did we manage the spread of COVID-19, we helped Taiwan take a step forward, and made our country a better place.
但正如同棒球比賽一樣,這一局能夠化險為夷,並不代表,我們下一局就會風平浪靜。走過了上階段的疫情風暴,下一個階段我們挑戰更大,更需要我們沉著面對,共同解決。 But just as in baseball, being able to turn one inning around does not mean the next one will be a walk in the park. Having come through the outbreak of the virus, we know that our next challenges will be even greater, requiring a calm and collective response.
疫後的世界秩序,正在劇烈的變化。目前,歐美各國,正苦於通貨膨脹,和隨之而來的經濟衰退;臺灣的通膨,雖然還在可以控制的範圍,但我們仍然必須要因應,全球經濟衰退的變局。 The post-pandemic world order is in a state of rapid change. Countries across Europe and the Americas are suffering from inflation and the resulting economic downturn. While inflation in Taiwan is still at a controllable level, we must nevertheless prepare for the developments that might be triggered by a global economic contraction.
在此同時,全球供應鏈重組,仍在進行當中。臺灣雖然在半導體、以及資通訊軟硬體的領域,已經取得關鍵的地位;但在其他領域也必須要快步跟上,才能立於不敗之地。另外,極端氣候帶來的異常災變,也提醒我們,必須要建立更能夠快速應變的機制。 At the same time, global supply chains are still undergoing restructuring. Though Taiwan already holds a key position in the fields of semiconductors and information and communications technology hardware and software, we must quickly catch up in other fields to ensure our strong footing. In addition, disasters caused by extreme weather events remind us that we must build mechanisms for rapid response.
在經濟局勢的過程當中,我們還要面對的另外一個挑戰,那就是烏俄戰爭持續在進行;中國在南海、東海、以及臺灣海峽的軍事行動,衝擊印太地區的和平穩定。我們絕對不能忽視,軍事的擴張,正在挑戰自由民主的世界秩序。這些變局,都跟臺灣息息相關。 Aside from economic developments, Russia continues its war against Ukraine, while China’s military activity in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait undermines peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. We absolutely cannot ignore the challenge that these military expansions pose to the free and democratic world order. These developments are inextricably connected with Taiwan.
臺灣正處在變局之中。我們不能抱著僥倖的心態。我們必須堅定民主立場,審慎的做出準備,隨時因應瞬息萬變的情勢。 With Taiwan a part of this changing landscape, we cannot leave things to chance. Instead, we must stand up for our democracy, and prepare prudently and sufficiently to respond to any possible contingency.
回顧過去,正是因為臺灣的韌性,我們才能夠度過疫情的挑戰。未來的兩年,在我任期的最後,我們不僅要持續站穩「四個堅持」的立場,更要在經濟產業、在社會安全網、在民主自由體制、在國防戰力,打造更精實的「四大韌性」。 Looking back, we can see that we were able to weather the challenges of the pandemic precisely because of Taiwan’s resilience. Over the remaining two years of my term, we will continue to resolutely uphold our Four Commitments. We will also enhance the resilience of four key areas: our economy and industry, social safety net, free and democratic government system, and national defense.
把中華民國臺灣,打造成為一個更強韌的國家,就是現階段國家發展,最重要的目標。 The work of making the Republic of China (Taiwan) a more resilient country is now our most important national development priority.

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Related

An Economy with new Bones, May 20, 2016
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Sunday, September 18, 2022

Patriotic Pep Talk: Angry, angrier, scientific

zhuchiren_04
Click picture for CRI video

The following is a transcript of a video by China Radio International (yes, China’s former foreign radio  broadcaster still exists somehow – CGTN in English and in Russian, CRI in Chinese).

Links within blockquotes added during translation.

大家好!这里是『国际三分钟』。 我是爱丽。 Hello! This is “International – Three Minutes”. I’m Ai Li.
继芯片法案之后,美国又准备在生物科技领域出招了。当地时间12日美国总统拜登签署了一项鼓励美国生物技术生产和研究的行政命令,旨在促进美国的生物制造。多家美媒体国解读此举仍然是『针对中国』。 Following its CHIPS and Science Act, America is now preparing to make a move in the field of biotechnology. On September 12, U.S. President Biden signed an executive order on a National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative, aimed at promoting American biomanufacturing. A number of U.S. media read this as yet another move “targeted at China”.
五角大楼说的更为直接。14日白宫举办生物技术和生物制造峰会,与会人员包括国家安全顾问沙利文,和国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯等人。 The Pentagon is even more straightforward. On September 14, the White House held a biomanufacturing summit which included national security advisor Jake Sullivan and deputy defense secretary and Kathleen Hicks.
希克斯在谈及投资生物技术对国防部的意义时表示,我们知道像中国这样的战略竞争对手也在优先考虑这些技术。他们想取代美国的领导地位,他们想挑战我们的竞争力。 Discussing the significance of biotechnology for national defense, Hicks said that it was known that strategic competitors like China were also considering these technologies a priority. [China] wanted to replace American leadership and challenge its competitiveness.
实际上,美国拥有世界上最强大的生物技术产业,在全球研发应用设施,基础研究方面,美国一直处于优先地位。2020年QS大学排名显示,在生命科学与医学排名前200的高校中,美国有61家入选。2019年全球市场排名前10名的生物医药公司中,美国占6家。截至2021年,在全球所有59座P4级别生物实验室中,美国独占13 – 14座。 In reality, America has the strongest global position in the biotechnological industry. In terms of R&D facilities and fundamental research, America always ranks first in global research. In the 2020 QS World University Rankings, as for life sciences and medical science rankings of the first 200 universities, 61 were American. In the [or a?] 2019 global market ranking, among the first ten biological drug companies, six were American. By 2021, U.S. P4-level biolaboratories dominated globally with 13 or 14 labs.
另外,在生物科技专利数量,专利活跃度,专利资产指数和竞争影响力等方面的领域优势,美国都很明显。中国短期内并不会对美国生物科技的全球地位产生威胁。 Also, as for the number of patents, patent activity, patent investment indices and competitive influence etc., America also has obvious advantages. China won’t be a threat to America’s global number-one position in biotechnology in the short term.
拜登政府之后已把目光转向生物技术。目的在于这背后巨大的经济利益更在于维护其科技霸权。 The Biden administration has since turned its attention to biotechnology. That’s because there are enormous economic interests behind it to protect their technological hegemony even better.
现在生物科技被广泛应用到各个领域。比如说,医疗方面的生物制药,农业方面的有机肥农药,工业方面的化学品甚至燃料,等等都跟生物科技有关。论对国家经济发展影响力,生物科技比之芯片领域毫不逊色。 Biotechnology is applied in a wide range of areas. For example, biological medication production for medical treatment, organic fertilizers and pesticides, industrial chemicals and even fuel are all related to biotechnology. Talking about influence on national economic development, biotechnology matters no less than the field of chips.
近些年中国在生物技术领域确实取得了一定的成绩。目前我们已经初涉形成门类齐全功能完备的生物经济产业体系,在生物医药生物育种,生物材料,生物能源等产业部门已经产生具有影响力的创新型企业。比如科创板上市企业中,生物企业占比就达1/3。 China has, in recent years, achieved certain successes. Currently, we have started shaping a category of fully functional and faultless biotechnological economic and industrial system. In the industrial sections of medicine, biomaterials and bioenergy etc., influential innovative companies have been created. For example, among the companies entering the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market, one third are biotech companies.
从战略角度来看,机械化曾经让英国称霸世界。信息化又让美国问鼎世界第一强国。美国非常担心将来如果生物技术产业化使中国实现超越,自身的国际地位就将不保。也正是基于此美国有些急眼想走老路子,想通过制裁封锁中国生物科技领域的进步达到稳固其全球霸权的目的。 Seen from a strategic point of view, mechanizaton once helped Britain to declare itself the global hegemon. Informatization made America the global number one. America is really worried that in future, if biotechnological production helps China to overtake it, it may not be able to maintain its international position. It is also therefore that America is anxious to take the old path and wants to solidify its global hegemony by putting sanctions on the progress of China’s biotechnological sector.
『美国之音』就报道称,拜登新行政令被人为是对上个月签署的『芯片法案』作出的一项补充。美国『财富』杂志称,拜登的新行政令给美中经济竞争在添新战线。总之新政令是一个『风向表』,他预示着美国对中国的技术限制已经从芯片能源扩大到了生物领域。 According to the “Voice of America”, Biden’s new executive order is believed to be supplementary to the “CHIPS and Science Act”. American “Fortune” magazine said that Biden’s new executive order will add a new battlefront to U.S.-Chinese economic competition. In short, the new executive order is a “wind direction indicator”, foretelling that America’s technological restrictions on China are now expanding from the chip energy field to the field of biotechnology.
按照美国行事风格我们可以预测,如果此次新政令没有达到美方的预期效果,那很有可能像在芯片领域一样。他们会继续寻求对中国的精准打击。遗憾的是,生物领域本可以是一个美方有技术,中方有市场的合作领域,而美国现在非要打破这个平衡。 Because of America’s style of action, we can predict that if this new executive order doesn’t have the effect expected by the U.S., it will most probably resemble that of the CHIPS and Science Act. They will continue to seek for accurate strikes at China. What’s unfortunate is that biotechnology couldbe a field of cooperation, with the U.S. having the technologoy and with China having the market. But the U.S. has inisted on breaking this balance.
奈何。俄罗斯『独立报』评论称,对于美国不断升级的限制措施,中国有不同的应对举措,但最终这将促使中国加大对科技研发的投入,并努力确保独立性。说得不错。我们能做要做的。就是利用好巨大的市场优势,培育,挖掘,吸纳生物领域顶尖人才,加速推进生物科技和产业自立自强! Nothing doing. Russia’s “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” writes in an editorial that China has different options to respond, but in the end, this will induce China to increase its commitment to technological R&D and make efforts to ensure its independence. Well said. We can and we will. Just make good use of the advantages of a giant market. Nurture, unleash and attract top-notch talents in the field of biotechnology, and speed up the promotion of biotechnology and bioproduction!

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Related

“Cold War mentality”, Asia Financial
And now, no news, Nov 20, 2021
By any other name, March 30, 2018
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Monday, September 12, 2022

A Vice-Ministerial Visit to Taiwan and its Story

圖說:駐立陶宛台灣代表處正式掛牌設立,新獲任命的首任代表黃鈞耀及同仁攝於館牌前。 Splittist doorplate – click photo for source

A 28-person Lithuanian delegation of laser and biotechnology company representatives led by the Baltic nation’s Vice Minister of Economy and Innovation Karolis Žemaitis has reportedly arrived in Taiwan for an official visit today (Monday, September 12 UTC).  Also today, Lithuania’s public broadcaster LRT republished a Voice of America article saying that espite offering to build high-speed rail, China charm offensive loses appeal in Baltics.

National security may have been about as much a factor in the cooling relations between China and several of its European partners, as have unfulfilled business expectations.

The Latvia state security service published a report in 2020 “essentially saying that Chinese activities in Latvia are very similar to Russian intelligence activities”,

the article quotes Martins Hirss, a researcher at the University of Latvia. The China-Central-Europe connection originally included “seventeen-plus-one” nations, i. e. Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

The Voice of America / LRT article also quotes an observer as saying that China will work in a more ‘targetted’ way, enhancing its profile where it already exists in a positive manner, for example, Hungary, Serbia.

All three Baltic countries have ended participation int the 17+1 format by now, leaving China with Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (14+1 or Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries, China-CEEC).

Lithunia not only led the departure of the Baltic cooperation members (Estonia and Latvia followed in August  this year), but has also endured a particularly intense conflict with Beijing over the name of Taiwan’s de-facto embassy in its capital Vilnius  – The Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania in English, or 駐立陶宛台灣代表處 in Chinese.

That was followed by Chinese economic warfare against Lithuania which in turn not only triggered a legislative process on the level of the European Union, but also likely convinced Lithuania’s two Baltic neighbors that they stood more to lose than to gain from “partnership” with China.

According to Taiwan’s foreign ministry as quoted by “Focus Taiwan”, the English-language website run by Taiwan’s Central News Agency CNA,

the fourth Lithuanian delegation led by a deputy minister-level official to Taiwan this year, following visits by Žemaitis’ immediate predecessor Jovita Neliupšienė on June 12, Ministry of Agriculture Vice Minister Egidijus Giedraitis on June 22, and Lithuanian Deputy Transportation Minister Agne Vaiciukevičiūtė on Aug. 6

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Related

Sender Viesintos, Wikipedia, acc Sept 12, 2022

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Sunday, July 24, 2022

Headlines: Guanchazhe, Shanghai, July 24

20220224_guanchazhe_press_review

Guanchazhe, headlines at 07:30 UTC

(1)     Actual Guanchazhe article there. Wikipedia has a useful article in English on Wentian space laboratory cabin module
(2)     Link
(3)     It’s more of a rant (you wouldn’t need academics for that, but it probably looks more authoratitve this way).
The article may contain some news for you however if you believe that Western sanctions against Russia are happily supported (or admired) everywhere else in the world
Thursday, May 19, 2022

Enorth: China Eastern MU5735 Preliminary Investigation Report, April 20

wikipedia_airbus_a380_airliner

CCTV coverage, March 24, 2022

The following is my translation of a preliminary report (or its April-20 reproduction by Tianjin’s Enorth news portal) on China Eastern Yunnan Airlines MU5735 flight’s crash on March 21 this year. I.

My translation is partly based on an illustrative wiki which shows components of an Airbus A380. The crashed plane in question was a Boeing, but I couldn’t find a similarly informative description of a Boeing.

Questions, information and corrections are welcome.

“March-21” China Eastern MU5735 flight crash preliminary investigation status notification.
“3·21”东航MU5735飞行事故调查初步报告的情况通报
Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China website / author, [Enorth] editor: Jin Yongfeng / April 20, 2022, 17:37 h
来源: 中国民航局网站 作者: 编辑:靳永锋 2022-04-20 17:37:00

Summary: On March 21, 2022, a China Eastern Yunnan Airlines Boeing 737-800 type B-1791 on its MU5735 flight from Kunming to Guangzhou rapidly descended from its 8,900 meters travel altitude over Guangzhou air control territory, and finally fell to the ground and crashed in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region / Wuzhou City / Teng County / Langnan Township‘s / Molang Village.
内容提要:2022年3月21日,东方航空云南有限公司波音737-800型B-1791号机,执行MU5735昆明至广州航班,在广州管制区域巡航时,自航路巡航高度8900米快速下降,最终坠毁在广西壮族自治区梧州市藤县埌南镇莫埌村附近。

On March 21, 2022, a China Eastern Yunnan Airlines Boeing 737-800 type B-1791 on its MU5735 flight from Kunming to Guangzhou rapidly descended from its 8,900 meters travel altitude over guangzhou air control territory, and finally fell to the ground and crashed in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region / Wuzhou City Teng County Langnan Township’s Molang Village.
2022年3月21日,东方航空云南有限公司波音737-800型B-1791号机,执行MU5735昆明至广州航班,在广州管制区域巡航时,自航路巡航高度8900米快速下降,最终坠毁在广西壮族自治区梧州市藤县埌南镇莫埌村附近。飞机撞地后解体,机上123名旅客、9名机组成员全部遇难。

According to “International Convention on Civil Aviation regulations *), the investigating country must send a preliminary investigation report to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) within thirty days after the crash. This report’s content is often about factual information gathered until then, and does not include accident analysis or conclusions.
根据《国际民用航空公约》规定,在事故之日起30天内,调查组织国须向国际民航组织和参与调查国发送调查初步报告,其内容通常为当前所获取的事实信息,不包括事故原因分析及结论。目前《“3·21”东航MU5735航空器飞行事故调查初步报告》已完成,报告主要包括飞行经过、机组机务人员、适航维修、残骸分布等事实信息。主要情况如下:

The plane took off from Kunming Changshui International Airport’s runway 21 at 13:16, rose to its travel altitude of 8,900 meters by 13:27, and entered Guangzhou air control airspace along the A599  air route at 14:17. At 14:20:55 a “Deviation from prescribed altitude” alert appeared on Guangzhou air control’s radar. The plane broke away from its travel altitude, air control staff immediately called the crew, but got no reply. At 14:21:40, the radar recorded the last signal from the aircraft as “standard pressure altimeter 3,380 meters altitude at a groundspeed of 1,010 km per hour, direction 117 degrees”. Soon after, the radar signal disappeared.
飞机于北京时间13:16从昆明长水机场21号跑道起飞,13:27上升至巡航高度8900米,14:17沿A599航路进入广州管制区,14:20:55广州区域管制雷达出现“偏离指令高度”告警,飞机脱离巡航高度,管制员随即呼叫机组,但未收到任何回复。14:21:40雷达最后一次记录的飞机信息为:标准气压高度3380米,地速1010千米/小时,航向117度。随后,雷达信号消失。

wikipedia_airbus_a380_airliner

Aircraft tail, Wiki, CC BY-SA 3.0 – click picture for source –
this shows the design of an Airbus A380 which
may differ significantly from a Boeing 737

The crash site is in a valley stretching from the southeast to the northwest near Molang Village of Langnan Township in Teng County, of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region’s Wuzhou City. A 45 square meters puddle of 2.7 meters depth is clearly visible on the ground, and has been determined to be the point of impact at 23° 19′ 25.52” north and 111° 06′ 44.30” east. The plane’s debris was mainly found on and under the ground in an azimuth of zero to 150 degrees from the point of impact. About twelve km from the point of impact, the right wingtip’s trailing edge was found. Mountain forests and vegetation at the crash site showed traces of fire. The right wingtip’s trailing edge was found about twelve km away from the impact point. Horizontal stabilizers and the vertical stabilizer, rudders, the left and right engines, the greater wings, body components, the undercarriage, cockpit inside components and other main wreckage were found at the site. After the wreckage had been searched and gathered, it was taken to a dedicated depot as a whole to be tidied up and to be identified,and for the pieces to be placed into their actual positions, to facilitate further inspection and analysis.
事故现场位于广西壮族自治区梧州市藤县埌南镇莫埌村附近一个东南至西北走向的山谷中。现场可见面积约45平米、深2.7米的积水坑,判定为主撞击点,位置为北纬23°19′25.52″,东经111°06′44.30″。飞机残骸碎片主要发现于撞击点0°至150°方位范围内的地面及地下。距主撞击点约12公里处发现右翼尖小翼后缘。事故现场山林植被有过火痕迹。现场发现水平安定面、垂直尾翼、方向舵、左右发动机、左右大翼、机身部件、起落架及驾驶舱内部件等主要残骸。所有残骸从现场搜寻收集后,统一转运到专用仓库进行清理、识别,按照飞机实际尺寸位置对应摆放,便于后续检查分析。

The Investigation shows that the flight crew on duty, the cabin crew and maintenance staff were qualified in accordance with the requirements, and the aircraft’s airworthiness documents were valid, with neither the most recent A-check (31A) nor the most recent C-check (3C) being beyond the time limits specified in the maintenance plans. There was no malfunction information before the flight and at the short-stop release on that day, no dangerous goods were declared, and the flight route, its vicinity and the monitoring equipment showed no anomalies. The last normal radiotelephony communication with the crew was at 14:16. The plane’s two flight recorders were badly damaged, and data restoration and analysis is ongoing.

经调查,当班飞行机组、客舱机组和维修放行人员资质符合要求;事故航空器适航证件有效,飞机最近一次A检(31A)及最近1次C检(3C)未超出维修方案规定的检查时限,当天航前和短停放行无故障报告,无故障保留;机上无申报为危险品的货物;此次飞行涉及的航路沿途导航和监视设施、设备未见异常,无危险天气预报;在偏离巡航高度前,机组与空管部门的无线电通信和管制指挥未见异常,最后一次正常陆空通话的时间为14:16;机上两部记录器由于撞击严重受损,数据修复及分析工作仍在进行中。

Follwing up, the technical investigation team will continue to carry out in-depth wreckage identification, classification and inspection, flight data analysis, the required tests, verification and other investigations.
后续,技术调查组将依据相关程序继续深入开展残骸识别、分类及检查、飞行数据分析、必要的实验验证等调查工作,科学严谨查明事故原因。

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Notes

*) also known as the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation
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Related

“Vicious smearing against China”, “Global Times”, May 18, 2022
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