Lai Ching-te’s Rabbit of the Year

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^{It’s just around the Corner (click photo for source)}

Lai said that facing an international climate that wasn’t good, changes in local politics and the threats of authoritarianism, the country, the government, individuals and companies could all display the wisdom of the rabbit. That would surely help to overcome an unpromising outset and turn it into a lucky process, to get through difficult times and for the people  to lead better lives.
國家、政府、個人、公司都可以學習發揮兔子的智慧，必定可逢凶化吉、度過難關，也讓人民過更好的生活。
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Vice President Lai said among the twelve zodiac animals, the rabbit ranked fourth. It belonged to the 4th eartly branch. So this is the beginning of the day, full of hope. This was the hopeful year of the rabbit, the festival was symbolized by the character for “Spring”, and one could look forward to saying Goodbye to things that hadn’t worked as one wished for, and to hope for a prosperous year for everyone.

賴副總統說，兔子的生肖排名第4，在地支屬卯，時辰是一天的開始，也是充滿希望。今年是充滿希望的兔年，節慶則對應「春」字，期盼揮別以往的不如意，希望今年大家都興旺。

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Related

Learn from the Rabbit’s Wisdom, RTI, January 23, 2023
Lai Ching-te, Wikipedia, accessed Jan 27, 2023

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China’s New Normal is the Old Decadent Normal

At some point during the past fourteen years of blogging, I began to feel bored by Chinese press reviews. They weren’t funny anymore,  or that’s how I felt about them anyway. They had been comical until spring 2012, if I trace the involuntary jokes back correctly, and then lost their luster.
But give a secretary-general of the Communist Party of China a lifetime job, and the fun will be back. A man with powers only held by Mao Zedong (and certain emperors) before him reopens the pandora box of ingratiation, sycophancy and loss of touch with reality that have made China great.

Xi speaking, cadres taking notes – CCTV evening news on July 24, 2013.

Here’s Xi Jinping’s vision of shared future, and its place in history:

Thousands of years ago, China envisaged a world where people would live in perfect harmony and be as dear to one another as family. Today, President Xi Jinping has given the world such a vision in the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Don’t get me wrong: the “One-Belt-one-Road” initiative has been a fairly clever approach to foreign relations. Even cold warriors like yours truly never hesitate to learn from fascists like Xi when they get something right. In the case I remember, in April 2015, on a state visit, it was just the right bit of ingratiation and – calculated, I suppose – loss of reality. (It was just Pakistan, and there was therefore no danger that the great helmsman would be overegging it. The loss of reality was Pakistan’s problem, not Xi’s.)
But it’s a different story for China when Xi’s subjects sing the praise of their overlord. Extreme flattery is where madness sets out from, and loss of reality is how it continues. Or, in the words of Jacques Ellul, a French sociologist and theologican (1912 – 1994)^*),

In an article in Pravda in May 1957, the Chinese writer Mao Dun wrote that the ancient poets of China used the following words to express the striving of the people toward a better life:
“The flowers perfume the air, the moon shines, man has a long life.” And he added: “Allow me to give a new explanation of these poetic terms. The flowers perfume the air — this means that the flowers of the art of socialist realism are incomparably beautiful. The moon shines — this means that the sputnik has opened a new era in the conquest of space. Man has a long life — this means that the great Soviet Union will live tens and tens of thousands of years.”

Ellul’s comment:

When one reads this once, one smiles. If one reads it a thousand times, and no longer reads anything else, one must undergo a change. And we must reflect on the transformation of perspective already suffered by a whole society in which texts like this (published by the thousands ) can be distributed and taken seriously not only by the authorities but by the intellectuals. This complete change of perspective of the Weltanschauung is the primary totalitarian element of propaganda.

One might object that this isn’t funny at all. I can see that point, and I can even feel a bit of the pain myself. But I also believe that the most comical stories grow in the most terrifying gardens. Chinese propaganda is making fun of itself  again – not because of a sense of self-irony (there’s nothing like that), but because Chinese public life has become living satire again.
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Notes

*)	Jacques Ellul: “Propaganda – the Formation of  Men’s Attitudes”, New York, 1968, 1973

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China is wary of new China Strategies – of course

German-Chinese relations are under review by Germany’s federal government – Beijing is worried

I actually wanted to ignore the visit to Taiwan by “Free Democrat” (FDP) members of Germany’s federal parliament. The FDP  would drop Taiwan like a hot potato if Xi Jinping put China’s state-owned enterprises up for international privatization. It is understandable that Taiwan welcomes foreign visits, this one included, but forget that talk about “friendship”.

That said, China’s ambassador to Germany, Wu Ken, makes sure that the German visit to Taiwan can’t be ignored – he’s making another fuss of it, in Germany’s business-friendly “Handelsblatt”, warning German politics “not to play with fire and not to test China’s red lines”. He is also worried that the German “traffic-light coalition”, consisting of Social Democrats, Greens, and the FDP (whose trademark color is yellow) would entirely follow America’s China policy.

The government’s colors

Nils Schmid, the Social Democrat parliament group’s spokesman on foreign affairs, says that he is “somewhat surprised” by Wu’s criticism. “The SPD parliamentary group demanded an adjustment of China policy, and the coalition agreement contains unambigious statements.”

The Chinese embassy has certainly laid its hands on one or several drafts of Berlin’s strategy papers. However, Schmid suggests that it must be a version that is several months old, and says that there is no final version yet. He adds that “contrary to China, where the state-controlled media certainly wouldn’t publish a similar criticism by foreign ambassadors, the Chinese ambassador has the opportunity to do so without being censored, around here.” This showed that there was systemic competition between China and democratic states after all.

Gyde Jensen, deputy chair of the FDP’s parliament group, says that Wu Ken’s answers show how fundamentally differently China interprets guiding liberal principles (“liberale Leitprinzipien”) and “bereaves them of their core concept, such as free markets, entrepreneurial freedom, human rights and multilateralism”. That alone was enough to explain why Germany needed a comprehensive China strategy, “for the record for everyone, China not least, to show how we see these principles and concepts and which action or rules we derive from them.” This included Germany’s interpretation of the “One-China policy”, concerning Taiwan.

China’s ambassador to Germany probably chose the “Handelsblatt” as an interlocutor not least because of its business-friendly position. However, by far not all German business is as involved in business with China as he appears to believe.

If it was up to Beijing, the Communist Party of China would determine China’s policy on Western countries, and business would continue to determine the West’s China policies. That was, of course, an extremely profitable arrangement for China, and it’s not really surprising that Beijing would like to keep it in place.

But every relationship, economically and politically, has to be in its stakeholders’ mutual interest (to borrow a Chinese slogan). Germany’s China policy will still be partly business-driven: if German business had got the “access” to Chinese markets it has long dreamed of, a tougher German policy on China would be almost inconceivable.

In that light, there is no reason to sing the praise of either Germany’s, America’s or any country’s government and their sudden attention for human rights et al. But there is reason to welcome their “tougher” policies. Depending on the “last versions” and their implementation, they may be in the national interest of our countries – at last.
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Related

“The Ukraine crisis it has triggered”, “China Daily”, Jan 10, 2023
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Some Porridge, some Rice: China’s New Normal?

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Xi Jinping’s new year address for 2023 has been flowery as usual, but it also comes with some frugal characteristics. If it is such great news that China has maintained its position as the world’s second-largest economy, times must be tough indeed, especially when you take into consideration that (according to China’s propaganda) the world’s biggest economy, i. e. America, has gone to hell in a basket. If they are still bigger than China now, where is China?

According to the great helmsman, China has “blown the trumpet to signal the brave beginning of a new journey” (吹响了奋进新征程的时代号角), with “stable and steady economic development” (stable and steady probably referring to the lowest growth numbers since the last years of Mao Zedong’s reign), a 19th consecutive bumper harvest this year (十九连丰), and “the consolidation of achievements made in shedding poverty”  (我们巩固脱贫攻坚成果). —Corrections, Jan 27^*)

How green is our motherland? (Source: Beijing News, Dec 31, 2022)

With the Scarce Resources always on your Mind

Generally, Chinese propaganda points out that its 19th bumper harvest in a row has been achieved while the world had been facing a food crisis. That’s not a big deal when you consider that Russia hasn’t blocked China’s northeastern provinces from the rest of the country, but it may be considered an invitation to the Chinese public to cherish self-sufficiency.

As for the “new phase of pandemic prevention and control now entered” by China, Xi doesn’t wade into the details, and just sees the light – or the dawn of a new era – ahead (目前，疫情防控进入新阶段，仍是吃劲的时候，大家都在坚忍不拔努力，曙光就在前头).
The lines closest to Xi’s heart – if the communist faith he’s wearing on his sleeves is real – are probably these:

After the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party I and other colleagues went to Yan’an together, to renew what we had learned about the magnificent years when the Party’s Central Committee prevailed over difficulties rarely seen over generations and to appreciate the spiritual strength of the old generation of communists. I frequently say that difficulties and deprivation only perfect the jade. The Communist Party of China’s past one-hundred years have been hard work in the open regardless of the weather, cutting their way through thistles and thorns,  – how difficult and great the journey has been. We want to advance further, keep struggling, and make tomorrow’s China even better.
党的二十大后我和同事们一起去了延安，重温党中央在延安时期战胜世所罕见困难的光辉岁月，感悟老一辈共产党人的精神力量。我常说，艰难困苦，玉汝于成。中国共产党百年栉风沐雨、披荆斩棘，历程何其艰辛又何其伟大。我们要一往无前、顽强拼搏，让明天的中国更美好。

Both China’s economic plans and its “great-power diplomacy” appear to be in some trouble. As for China’s economy, it would take a real lot of innovation to catch up with the ageing of society. And China’s “great-power diplomacy” (大国外交), although re-iterated by Xi in another new-year address one day ealier, to a meeting of the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference on December 30th, appears to have fed its wolf-warriors some chalk. For now, that is.

There is no reason to believe that China has given up on “replacing” America, or on other major goals, “core interests” and what have you. But the CPC leaders are revisiting and reassessing the foundations of their power. The emphasis on food security suggests that self-sufficiency in that field will always be a priority – China doesn’t only distrust the sealanes, it also distrusts its immediate neighbors. And if America’s restrictions on chip and chip-manufacturing equipment supplies to China find international support and cooperation, China’s growth plans will probably need to be postponed.

When enumerating China’s moderate successes to Chinese People’s Consultative Conference members, Xi emphasized that those successes hadn’t been “easy to achieve” or “easy to come by” (来之不易). That term is linked to a proverb about man’s most basic needs, i. e. food and clothing. My try at a translation:

Some porridge and rice aren’t easy to come by,half a silk or cotton thread, permanently bear in mind how scarce are your resources.
一粥一饭，当思来处不易；半丝半缕，恒念物力维艰

That’s also where China’s grassroot propaganda – in the shape of newspapers more prominent than, say, “People’s Daily” – is taking us as it picks up Xi’s reference to the latest bumper harvest: to the countryside. Here, too, none of the bumper harvests has been “easy to come by”. The proverb didn’t feature prominently in politics articles before the end of December, while it was popular in all other kinds of (less basic-need-related) online articles or comments. Now, it is represents the flavor of the new era.

To help the readers understand the significance of this year’s output, his attention is drawn to a number of natural disasters.

Delicious Meat then, Tough Bones now

How planned are China’s readjustments? The new “cold war” China keeps warning us of may not have been intended by Beijing, but it was provoked by Beijing.

Either way, tough times have occasionally been predicted by China’s propaganda before, and by its supreme mouth not least. In February 2014, Xi Jinping told Russian television that

After 30 years of reform, China has entered the deep water [or blue water], and all the pleasant reforms have been completed. The delicious meat has been eaten, and what is still on the dishes are rather tough bones. This requires our courage, and steady moves. Courage means to push reform even when it is difficult, and to prove worthy, to tackle the hard bones, and to enter dangerous shoals. Steadiness is about keeping to the accurate direction, driving steadily, and, above all, to avoid disruptive mistakes.

The Russians must have been an understanding audience. Now, eight years later, Xi needs to find out how understanding the Chinese are.
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Notes

^*) Corrected – previous text:
… and “the consolidation of hard-earned achievements made in previous difficult missions” (我们巩固脱贫攻坚成果)
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