“New Development Concept” (新发展理念)

If you go by this online glossary by “The Center of Strategic Translation”,

[T]he roots of the problem set tackled by the New Development Concept stretch back to the early Reform Era,

i. e. the late 1970s. Growth had mainly been driven by “government investment in fixed capital assets and strong foreign demand for cheap Chinese goods” – and eventually, rising Chinese wages had to lead to a loss of those markets for cheap products. Also, there were limits to how much infrastructure and building was needed in China.

The “New Development Concept” is described as an answer to the problem the CPC is now facing. It is basically described as an approach to try to access new sources of growth.

Until 2018, that would be a switch from investment-driven to supply-side structural reform, i. e. gradually cutting enterprises that didn’t meet with domestic demand, and support new technological frontiers where the state hoped for new breakthroughs. “[U]nder the pressure of a grueling trade war”, as the article describes it, economic security came to flank the “new development concept”, often borrowing from the already existing Total National Security Paradigm (总体国家安全观).

This “New Development Pattern“ (新发展格局) would rely on

domestic consumers to power the Chinese economy and on a homegrown scientific-industrial complex to power China’s technological advance.

“[A] schema of self-sufficiency” is brought up in this context, but I suppose that shouldn’t be read as if the idea of self-sufficiency hadn’t been around in China before. While food security, for example, seems to have emerged rather recently as a keyword, China has never been too dependent on food imports, despite a rather small (and probably diminishing) share of arable land in its overall territory.

Certainly however, the CPC leaders have been aware of the limits of the post-Mao development model, driven by investment. As early as in 2014, Xi Jinping told Russian television that

After 30 years of reform, China has entered the deep water [or blue water], and all the pleasant reforms have been completed. The delicious meat has been eaten, and what is still on the dishes are rather tough bones. This requires our courage, and steady moves. Courage means to push reform even when it is difficult, and to prove worthy, to tackle the hard bones, and to enter dangerous shoals. Steadiness is about keeping to the accurate direction, driving steadily, and, above all, to avoid disruptive mistakes.

There are arguments that would make China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy” look logical: if China’s economy becomes less attractive for foreign investors, you may have to intimidate them, rather than to lure them. But then, China has since abandoned some of that confrontational policy, at least in its communications with Washington. Maybe the chance of “hostile forces” did come as a surprise for Beijing after all.

As for the glossary, I can’t really judge its accuracy and reliability, but it does look like a good source to me to understand CPC party documents and articles.

Argentine Foreign Minister on Business Tour to Japan and South Korea

While Argentina has become a likely candidate for joining BRICS, it is also expanding economic relations with Japan and South Korea. As an author pointed out in South Africa’s “Daily Maverick” on August 16,

The BRICS bloc accounts for more than 42% of the world’s population, 30% of its territory, 23% of global GDP, and 18% of global trade. However, only about 6% of the total trade of the five BRICS countries is with each other.

When reading Argentina’s 2022 trade statistics, especially with South Korea, one should bear in mind that Argentina’s trade with China appears to have been at about 25 bn US dollars.

That’s a very big league, compared to Argentine-South Korean bilateral trade, which was only around 2.7 bn US dollars, if I have read the statistics correctly.

According to the Argentine foreign ministry’s website, Argentine foreign minister Santiago Cafiero left for a visit to East Asia on Sunday (August 27 Argentine time). He was scheduled to meet with Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida, foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, minister of agriculture Tetsuro Nomura, trade and industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, and Science and Technology minister Keiko Nagaoka. He was also to take part in a working breakfast of the mixed committee of Argentine and Japanese entrepreneurs.

Argentine foreign radio eQSL, 2019

Following his visit to Japan, Cafiero traveled to South Korea.

According to Argentine foreign radio’s German news program on August 29, based on the above website’s information,

Argentine foreign minister Cafiero is visiting Japan and the Republic of Korea. The emphasis of his visits is on trade and investment. Argentine and Japan have achieved a recovery of bilateral trade of goods after the pandemic in 2021. With exports at 794.6 mn US dollars, i. e. a growth by 10.1 percent compared to the previous year, and imports of 1.2 bn US dollars, this trend continued. Japan was the seventh-biggest destination for Argentine exports to Asia in 2022, after China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia. In terms of Japanese imports, Argentina ranked sixth in Latin America in 2022.

The minister will then travel to Korea. He will not only visit the capital Seoul where he will be received by the prime minister, but also visit the facilities of the Posco company in Pohang. Posco is running a lithium project named Sal de Oro in the provinces of Salta and Catamarca in Argentina’s northwest,, on an area of 25,000 hectares, for the production of lithium carbonate. Total investment is 1.6 bn US dollars, in two stages. Posco is planning a total investment of four bn US dollars until 2030. Bilateral trade between Argentina and South Korea reached record amounts at exports and imports in 2022.

The rise in bilateral trade of goods reached 2.7 bn US dollars, a rise of 16 percent compared to the previous year, based on a rise in Argentine exports and, to a lesser extent, Argentine imports from Korea.^*) The balance of trade showed an Argentine surplus of almost 1.3 bn US dollars in 2022, a rise by 20 percent compared to the previous year. South Korea was the fifth-biggest destination for Argentine exports to Asia in 2022, after China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia.

KBS World Radio reports that supply-chain cooperation on critical minerals and hydrogen were discussed between Cafiero and South Korean trade minister Ahn Duk-geun in a meeting on Thursday (Aug 31). According to Yonhap, Argentina has the world’s third-largest lithium reserves.

________________

Note

^*) Exports up 17% / Imports up 12%
________________

Ukraine, Russia and China’s 60,000 Tons of Grain

The following is probably no verified observation. The quantity of grain that had been scheduled for shipment to China was also stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky in July. Source:

China has also taken part in the Jeddah peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine. According to Yehor Czerniev, head of the permanent delegation to the NATO parliamentary assembly, Beijing is changing its position regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, due to the non-constructive position of Russian president Putin. Cherniev added that as a result of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine port infrastructure, sixty-thousand tons of grain that had to be shipped to to China were destroyed. “We see that China is also looking for ways to settle and end this war. We see that China’s position is gradually changing from conditionally neutral to more pro-Ukrainian [unreadable] and in fact, China agrees with the peace formula of president Zelensky, and with the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.”

Radio Ukraine, “Security Issue”, Aug 10, 2023

Old Folk at the Sun Gate: “China Sincerely Invites Central Asian States into its Development Express Train”

This is a summary of how CCTV’s main evening news “Xinwen Lianbo” presented the Xi’an Summit in its May 19, 19 hours local time, edition. Analysis might follow in another blogpost.

Let’s focus on newsitems #1 and #3.¹⁾

1. Banquet and Show, Thursday, May 18

Chronologically, Xinwen Lianbo’s coverage starts with newsitem #3, giving an account of the welcome banquet in the evening of May 18 in Xi’an, and a silk-road resonating happy-peoples show after that.

In his banquet speech, Xi says that “we sincerely welcome the east-Asian states to get onto China’s development express train” (我们诚挚欢迎中亚国家搭乘中国发展快车).

Newsitem #3 then continues with the First-Ladies’ program of the following day (May 19). Only two central Asian First Ladies are mentioned who joined China’s Peng Liyuan there, Aigul Japarova from Kyrgyzstan and Ziroatkhon Hoshimova (short form: Ziroat Mirziyoyeva) from Uzbekistan.

Tokayev’s arrival, May 18

2. The Summit, Friday, May 19

Newsitem #1 starts with the actual summit.

The five Presidents’ arrivals, “one by one” (中亚五国元首相继抵达, not from the plane, as they have attended the welcome banquet the night before).

Xi Jinping’s keynote speech at the May 19 summit is titled “Joining hands to build a Chinese-Central Asian community of common destiny²⁾, by mutual support, joint development, universal security and friendship of many generations” (携手建设守望相助、共同发展、普遍安全、世代友好的中国－中亚命运共同体).

Back to the actual summit on May 19. Right after a referral to the historic “Silk Road”, a topic that also featured prominently in the post-dinner opera the night before, Xi comes back to his proposal ten years earlier of “jointly establishing a comprehensive revival of the Silk road”. It probably matters that he doesn’t refer to China’s proposal here, but to his, Xi’s, in-person advocacy back in 2013.

He then describes Central Asia he wants to see, or, in his now more modest words, the kind of Central Asia that “the world needs”. That’s
• a stable central Asia, i. e. sovereign and independent states with territorial integrity
• a prosperous central Asia
• a harmonious central Asia and
• a connective central Asia.

“Eight Persistences” (四个坚持)
To establish the envisaged Chinese-Central Asian community of common destiny, Xi sees a need for “four persistences”:
• Persistence in keeping watch and defending one another (守望相助), or, in some more detail, to deepen mutual strategic trust, and supporting one another when it comes to matters of core interests, such as sovereignty, independence, national dignity, and long-term development
• Persistence in joint development and marching in the first line of building the “one-belt-one-road”, in advocacy of global development, in unleashing the traditional potential for cooperation, poverty reduction, green and low-carbon growth, etc.
• Persistence in “universal security” (a term that has already been mentioned in the title of Xi’s speech), advocacy of global security, resolute opposition against “external forces'” interference in regional domestic politics (坚决反对外部势力干涉地区国家内政), so as to build a community that stays far away from conflict and always enjoys peace
• Persistence in friendship of many generations, implementation of the global civilization advocacy, exchange of governance experience, intercivilisational reflection, etc..

Trade, “anti-terrorism” measures and the D Pipeline

Xi’s keynote numerology continues with eight proposals.

Xi Jinping emphasized that this summit had built a new platform for China and central Asia and opened new perspectives for cooperation between China and central Asia. China would like to hold this summit as an opportunity to work closely with all parties, and to plan, build and develop cooperation between China and central Asia well.
习近平强调，这次峰会为中国同中亚合作搭建了新平台，开辟了新前景。中方愿以举办这次峰会为契机，同各方密切配合，将中国－中亚合作规划好、建设好、发展好。

Firstly, we will strengthen the building of mechanisms. China has initiated the establishment of conferences and dialog mechanisms in the fields of industry and investment, agriculture, transportation, emergency management, education and political parties etc., so as to create a broad platform for comprehensive and for all sides beneficial cooperation.
一是加强机制建设。中方倡议成立产业与投资、农业、交通、应急管理、教育、政党等领域会晤和对话机制，为各国开展全方位互利合作搭建广泛平台。

Secondly, we will broaden economic and trade relations. China will launch more initiatives to facilitate trade, to improve bilateral investment agreements, to make full use of the “green channel” for smooth bilateral customs clearance of agricultural products and by-products, hold live-stream get-together activities³⁾ between China and central Asia on the topic of central-Asian products.
二是拓展经贸关系。中方将出台更多贸易便利化举措，升级双边投资协定，实现双方边境口岸农副产品快速通关“绿色通道”全覆盖，举办“聚合中亚云品”主题活动，打造大宗商品交易中心。

Thirdly, deepening connectivity. China will upgrade cross-border transport capacities, support construction of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, promote the liberalization of the airfreight market, and develop regional logistical networks. It will strengthen the construction of train-consolidation centers within Trans-Eurasia Logistics, encourage superior businesses to establish overseas warehouses and build comprehensive digital service platforms.
三是深化互联互通。中方将全面提升跨境运输过货量，支持跨里海国际运输走廊建设，推进航空运输市场开放，发展地区物流网络。加强中欧班列集结中心建设，鼓励优势企业在中亚国家建设海外仓，构建综合数字服务平台。

Fourthly, expanding energy cooperation. China has initiated the China-central Asia energy partnership, accelerated the China-central Asia D-pipeline consgtruction, expanded the scale of bilateral oil and gas trade, developed cooperation on the complete energy value chain, and strengthened cooperation in the field of new energy and peaceful use of nucelar energy.
四是扩大能源合作。中方倡议建立中国－中亚能源发展伙伴关系，加快推进中国－中亚天然气管道D线建设，扩大双方油气贸易规模，发展能源全产业链合作，加强新能源与和平利用核能合作。

Five, six and seven are about promoting green energy, improving development capabilities, and dialog between civilizations. Item six may be interesting in terms of Chinese financial support for the central Asian states, partly non-repayable (无偿援助). this seems to spell preferential treatment for central Asia, as China has become known as a rather unforgiving creditor worldwide.

And item eight is mostly about East Turkestan. Obviously, neither that name, nor China’s preferred handle for it, “Xinjiang”, appear here, but that’s what it is mostly about. Cyber security and reconstruction of Afghanistan are also mentioned.

China-style modernization (中国式现代化)

Then Xi describes recent political events in China, and issues an invitation again.

Concluding, Xi Jinping pointed out that the CPC’s 20th National Congress has specified the central tasks of comprehensively building a socialist, modern and strong country, to achieve the second centenary goal, to comprehensively carry forward the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by means of Chinese-style modernization. We want to strengthen theoretical and practical exchange with central Asian countries about modernization, promote connections of development, and create still more opportunities for cooperation, and joint efforts of our six countries in their modernization processes. Let us work hand in hand, struggle collectively, actively promote common development, common prosperity, and welcome a better future for our six countries together!
习近平最后指出，中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会明确了全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标、以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴的中心任务。我们愿同中亚国家加强现代化理念和实践交流，推进发展战略对接，为合作创造更多机遇，协力推动六国现代化进程。让我们携手并肩，团结奋斗，积极推进共同发展、共同富裕、共同繁荣，共同迎接六国更加美好的明天！

Replies

Then it is the turn of the visiting five.

The five central Asian heads of state, one after another, thanked China for initiating and successfully holding the first China-central Asia summit, and they evaluated the fruitful results of the comprehensive cooperation positively. they said that the central-Asian countries shared a millenium of profound friendship with China, had always helped each other, trusted each other as good neighbors, good friends, and good partners, and the most sincere old friends at the Yang Pass⁴⁾ in China’s West. Currently, China has become a key force in ensuring global security and stability, and the promotion of technological and economic development. Cooperation with China is an important and essential factor for all countries to achieve sustainable development. Further deepening relations with China is in line with the hopes of the five central Asian countries peoples, and each country’s fundamental and long-term interests. The China-Central Asia Summit will provide a new platform for cooperation between the central Asian countries with China and show the way into the new era of the two sides’ relations. All sides welcome and appreciate china’s policy of friendly cooperation with central Asia, wish to continue to give full play to the heads of states’ diplomatically leading strategic roles, make the mechanisms from the summit bigger and stronger, strengthen top-level design and overall planning, deepen central Asian countries’ comprehensive pragmatic cooperation with China, to bring about more benefits for all the peoples of every country, to help with all countries achieving common development and prosperity, and to make contributions to the promotion of regional security and stability.
中亚五国元首先后发言，感谢中方倡议并成功主办首届中国－中亚峰会，积极评价中亚国家同中国全方位合作取得的丰硕成果。他们表示，中亚国家同中国拥有千年友好和深厚情谊，始终是相互支持、相互信赖的好邻居、好朋友、好伙伴，是中国西出阳关最真挚的故人。当前，中国已经成为保障全球安全稳定和促进科技经济发展的关键力量，同中国合作是各国实现可持续发展不可或缺的重要因素，进一步深化中亚五国同中国的关系符合各国人民共同愿望，符合各国根本和长远利益。中国－中亚峰会为中亚国家同中国合作提供了新平台，引领双方关系进入了新时代。各方欢迎并赞赏中国对中亚友好合作政策，愿继续充分发挥元首外交战略引领作用，做大做强中国－中亚峰会机制，加强顶层设计和统筹规划，深化中亚国家同中国全方位务实合作，为各国人民带来更多福祉，助力各国实现共同发展繁荣，并为促进地区安全稳定作出应有贡献。

The five heads of state said that they firmly supported each others’ choices in line with their own countries national conditions and development paths, firmly defended all countries’ sovereignty, independence, security, territorial integrity and other core interests, and firmly opposed interference in other countries’ domestic politics. They rated highly Chairman Xi Jinping’s concept of a community of common destiny of mankind and global security initiative, global development initiative, global civilizations initiative, and said they would conscientiouyly implement the important consensus and results achieved at this summit. By using the opportunity of the “one-belt-one-road” initiative ten years ago, they would strengthen their respective countries’ develop strategies to the joint building of “one belt one road”, promote regional online communications, deepen trade and investment, agricultural, energy, technological, security etc. pragmatic cooperation, strengthen civilizational exchange, jointly react to challenges, achieve cooperation and win-win, and build a still closer chinese-central Asian community.
五国元首表示，坚定支持彼此选择符合本国国情的发展道路，坚定维护各国主权、独立、安全、领土完整等核心利益，坚决反对干涉他国内政。他们高度评价习近平主席提出的构建人类命运共同体理念以及全球安全倡议、全球发展倡议、全球文明倡议，表示将认真落实此次峰会达成的重要共识和成果，以共建“一带一路”倡议提出十周年为契机，加强各自国家发展战略同共建“一带一路”对接，推进地区互联互通，深化贸易投资、农业、能源、科技、安全等领域务实合作，加强人文交流，共同应对挑战，实现合作共赢，构建更加紧密的中国－中亚命运共同体。

Concluding events

Newsitem #1 ends with a note that a “Xi’an Declaration of the China-Central Asia Sumiit” was signed, and that a “List of Outcomes of the China-central Asian Summit” was adopted. The second summit is scheduled for 2025, in Kazakhstan, and a permanent secretariat to be established in China.

The newsitem ends with Xi and the five visiting heads of state “meeting journalists” and their planting of six pomeganate trees.

________________

Notes

¹⁾  Evening newsitems, May 19

#1	Xi Jinping hosts first Chinese-central Asian summit
#2	Xi Jinping and the five heads of state meet journalists
#3	May 18 banquet, May 19 first-ladies’ program
#4	Short reference to a CCTV editorial on summit
#5	Li Qiang holds regular state-council meeting
#6	Li Qiang meets with President of Kyrgyzstan
#7	Wang Huning meets with delegates from a symposium commemorating the 70th anniversary of founding of the “Islamic Association of China”
#8	Wang Huning meets with President of Kyrgyzstan
#9	Li Xi visits places in Fujian for inspection and research
#10	News in brief

²⁾ also known as “community of shared future”

3)	I wouldn’t have found this translation myself; it’s taken from the official English translation of Xi’s keynote speech, and “live-streaming sales event to further promote Central Asian products” appears to be the translation for ““聚合中亚云品”主题活动” (if it isn’t an earlier or more recent transation)

4)	English: “Sun Gate”, as described here by Wikipedia. The Yangguan or Sun Gate also plays a role in Tang poetry.

________________

“Three Proposals, concerning the Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas”

The following are translated excerpts from an article by China’s domestic radio network, CPBS. Links within blockquotes added during translation.
Main Link: “Suggestions for increased investment into the construction of rural infrastructure”

^{Han Fengxiang, CPBS coverage, March 10, 2023}

CPBS online, Beijing, March 10, Reporter Wang Chi. 2023’s No. 1 central document has made clear provisions concerning increased investment in rural infrastructure construction and the promotion of the rural industries’ high-quality development. Three proposals brought about by Han Fengxiang, delegate to the National People’s Congress and director of Fenghuangshan Agricultural Machinery Farmers Professional Cooperative in Lishu County, Siping City, Jilin Province, are closely related to the development of agriculture and rural areas. They are “Proposal concerning increased investment in large agricultural counties’ rural infrastructure”, “Proposal on increased support for integrated technology for black-soil conservation and practical solidification of food security foundations in Jilin”, and “Proposal for increased support for professional agricultural cooperatives”.
央广网北京3月10日消息（记者王迟）2023年中央一号文件对加强农业基础设施建设，推动乡村产业高质量发展等方面作出了明确规定。今年全国两会，全国人大代表、吉林省四平市梨树县凤凰山农机农民专业合作社理事长韩凤香带来的三份议案均与农业农村发展密切相关，分别为《关于加大对农业大县农村基础设施投入力度的建议》《关于加大黑土地保护集成技术支持力度 切实夯实吉林粮食安全根基的建议》《关于加大对农民专业合作社扶持力度的建议》。

[…]

Proposal to increase support for farmers’ professional cooperatives
There are currently agricultural 3,040 cooperatives in Lishu County. “Farmers have joined cooperatives to farm the land intensively. The level of mechanization and the production efficiency have seen great improvement. Apart from land dividends, they also increase incomes by working as agricultural machine operators, working outside the cooperative, etc.”, Han Fengxiang told this reporter.
建议加大对农民专业合作社的扶持力度
目前，梨树县有农民合作社3040个。“农民加入合作社，将土地进行集约经营，农业机械化水平和生产效率都有了很大提高，社员们除了土地分红，还通过在合作社当农机手、外出打工等增加收入。”韩凤香告诉记者。

Han Fengxiang said that taking Lishu County as an example, there are many cooperatives, but only 266 of them have reached above-county-level model cooperative standard^*), while most of them don’t meet the standards. They are rather small, without much strength, and low degrees of specialization. There are especially few large-scale specialized agricultural machinery cooperatives and cultivation cooperatives, and they could hardly meet the requirements of scales and standardization of all villages. To a certain degree, this had hampered the development of expanded farming.
韩凤香表示，以梨树县为例，合作社数量很多，但其中达到县级以上示范社标准的合作社仅有266家，多数合作社不够规范。规模较小、实力不强、专业化程度低，特别是大型农机农民专业合作社、养殖合作社较少，难以满足各村规模化、标准化作业需要，在一定程度上制约了规模化经营发展。

Therefore, Han Fengxiang suggests to continuously increase the extent of support for farmers’ and agricultural machinery specialization cooperatives, to improve complementary agricultural machinery subsidy standards, expand the scope of subsidies, and to strengthen the cooperatives’ motivation to update and to renew machines and equipment. Secondly, continuously bring into play the positive factors of cooperatives in socialization services, to explore business opportunities in line with local circumstances, thus safeguarding farmers’ incomes and protecting national food security at the same time.
为此，韩凤香建议进一步加大对农民农机专业合作社的扶持力度，提高配套农机具补贴标准，扩大补贴范围，增强合作社更新换代机械设备的积极性。其次，进一步发挥合作社在社会化服务中的积极作用，因地制宜探索适合本土的经营模式，既保证农民收益，又维护国家粮食安全。

[Contact data]

________________

Note

*)

Out of those 3,040 cooperatives in total, mentioned in the previous paragraph, that is. China’s central-goverment ministry of agriculture calls on agricultural departments of all provinces, “autonomous regions”, municipalities under the central government and of East Turkestan (Xinjiang) “to implement the central government’s requirements concerning the highlighting of developing new business units, and the deepened promotion of requirements for the stablishment of model farming cooperatives”.

________________

Related

黑土地保护法 , MOE, June 24, 2022
Qu Dongyu, FAO, Aug 1, 2019
________________

China’s Position: Ukraine still hopes for the Best

On February 27, Ukraine issued a rejection of sorts of China’s February 24 position paper “on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”. Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, told “Freedom TV”  that the only effective measure the position paper called for was “immediate cessation of fire.”

“This means that Russia will remain in the occupied territories, we will have a new dividing line, and we will have a slow absorption of Ukraine. That is, the slow death of Ukraine,” the TV station quoted Pdolyak.

The rejection from Zelensky’s office, but only in an unofficial interview, suggests that Kiev doesn’t want to anger Beijing and possibly provoke Chinese lethal-arms supplies to Russia that wouldn’t happen otherwise.

^{中共中央外事工作委员会办公室主任王毅会见乌克兰外长库列巴，慕尼黑，Febr 18, 2023}

In an article published on March 3, “Freedom TV” quotes interviewees as saying that “it is too early to say that China is openly opposing Ukraine”. China’s “global ambitions”, its long common border with Russia, and its dependence on Russian energy supplies as well as the two countries’ traditional alliance are quoted as factors supporting the bilateral relationship, but “Beijing will not sacrifice its own well-being because of Russia, experts are sure”.

Part of China’s “well-beings” is the arable land it owns in Ukraine. It shouldn’t be too difficult to replace, given that Beijing’s investment companies are scouting all continents for farmable land to buy or rent, but it wouldn’t be fun to see the goose being killed by Russia – even if it isn’t quite the “golden” goose.

Besides, at least one of “Voice of America’s” interlocutors, Taiwan International Strategic Study Society director Ching-Sheng Lo (羅慶生), took a rather critical view of China’s food security, a year ago.

Lo Ching-Sheng says: “Having bought that much grain, with storage for a year and a half, there’s nothing to care about – no problem in the short run. If this should turn into an Afghanistan kind of war of twenty years, China’s problems will be very big.”
罗庆生说：“因为中国买了太多粮食的关系，它储存了一年半的粮食，所以一年半之内它不会有事情，所以短期的话没问题。长期的话，如果说变成阿富汗战争那个样子打个20年，那中国的问题就很大了。”

But the Russian hinterland will count more than Ukraine – be it for China’s “global ambitions”, be it for its food security. Beijing took a speaking decision in early February, 2022, a few weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Answer to the unfolding crisis: more grain imports from Russia.

Ukraine’s hopes on China are unreasonably high. As Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote,

The party can survive setbacks in the chip war, but the stakes are much higher in the fight for food security. Failure on the food security front will threaten the survival of the regime.

________________
Related

Kuleba addresses Asia, March 22, 2022

________________

Some Porridge, some Rice: China’s New Normal?

–
Xi Jinping’s new year address for 2023 has been flowery as usual, but it also comes with some frugal characteristics. If it is such great news that China has maintained its position as the world’s second-largest economy, times must be tough indeed, especially when you take into consideration that (according to China’s propaganda) the world’s biggest economy, i. e. America, has gone to hell in a basket. If they are still bigger than China now, where is China?

According to the great helmsman, China has “blown the trumpet to signal the brave beginning of a new journey” (吹响了奋进新征程的时代号角), with “stable and steady economic development” (stable and steady probably referring to the lowest growth numbers since the last years of Mao Zedong’s reign), a 19th consecutive bumper harvest this year (十九连丰), and “the consolidation of achievements made in shedding poverty”  (我们巩固脱贫攻坚成果). —Corrections, Jan 27^*)

How green is our motherland? (Source: Beijing News, Dec 31, 2022)

With the Scarce Resources always on your Mind

Generally, Chinese propaganda points out that its 19th bumper harvest in a row has been achieved while the world had been facing a food crisis. That’s not a big deal when you consider that Russia hasn’t blocked China’s northeastern provinces from the rest of the country, but it may be considered an invitation to the Chinese public to cherish self-sufficiency.

As for the “new phase of pandemic prevention and control now entered” by China, Xi doesn’t wade into the details, and just sees the light – or the dawn of a new era – ahead (目前，疫情防控进入新阶段，仍是吃劲的时候，大家都在坚忍不拔努力，曙光就在前头).
The lines closest to Xi’s heart – if the communist faith he’s wearing on his sleeves is real – are probably these:

After the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party I and other colleagues went to Yan’an together, to renew what we had learned about the magnificent years when the Party’s Central Committee prevailed over difficulties rarely seen over generations and to appreciate the spiritual strength of the old generation of communists. I frequently say that difficulties and deprivation only perfect the jade. The Communist Party of China’s past one-hundred years have been hard work in the open regardless of the weather, cutting their way through thistles and thorns,  – how difficult and great the journey has been. We want to advance further, keep struggling, and make tomorrow’s China even better.
党的二十大后我和同事们一起去了延安，重温党中央在延安时期战胜世所罕见困难的光辉岁月，感悟老一辈共产党人的精神力量。我常说，艰难困苦，玉汝于成。中国共产党百年栉风沐雨、披荆斩棘，历程何其艰辛又何其伟大。我们要一往无前、顽强拼搏，让明天的中国更美好。

Both China’s economic plans and its “great-power diplomacy” appear to be in some trouble. As for China’s economy, it would take a real lot of innovation to catch up with the ageing of society. And China’s “great-power diplomacy” (大国外交), although re-iterated by Xi in another new-year address one day ealier, to a meeting of the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference on December 30th, appears to have fed its wolf-warriors some chalk. For now, that is.

There is no reason to believe that China has given up on “replacing” America, or on other major goals, “core interests” and what have you. But the CPC leaders are revisiting and reassessing the foundations of their power. The emphasis on food security suggests that self-sufficiency in that field will always be a priority – China doesn’t only distrust the sealanes, it also distrusts its immediate neighbors. And if America’s restrictions on chip and chip-manufacturing equipment supplies to China find international support and cooperation, China’s growth plans will probably need to be postponed.

When enumerating China’s moderate successes to Chinese People’s Consultative Conference members, Xi emphasized that those successes hadn’t been “easy to achieve” or “easy to come by” (来之不易). That term is linked to a proverb about man’s most basic needs, i. e. food and clothing. My try at a translation:

Some porridge and rice aren’t easy to come by,half a silk or cotton thread, permanently bear in mind how scarce are your resources.
一粥一饭，当思来处不易；半丝半缕，恒念物力维艰

That’s also where China’s grassroot propaganda – in the shape of newspapers more prominent than, say, “People’s Daily” – is taking us as it picks up Xi’s reference to the latest bumper harvest: to the countryside. Here, too, none of the bumper harvests has been “easy to come by”. The proverb didn’t feature prominently in politics articles before the end of December, while it was popular in all other kinds of (less basic-need-related) online articles or comments. Now, it is represents the flavor of the new era.

To help the readers understand the significance of this year’s output, his attention is drawn to a number of natural disasters.

Delicious Meat then, Tough Bones now

How planned are China’s readjustments? The new “cold war” China keeps warning us of may not have been intended by Beijing, but it was provoked by Beijing.

Either way, tough times have occasionally been predicted by China’s propaganda before, and by its supreme mouth not least. In February 2014, Xi Jinping told Russian television that

After 30 years of reform, China has entered the deep water [or blue water], and all the pleasant reforms have been completed. The delicious meat has been eaten, and what is still on the dishes are rather tough bones. This requires our courage, and steady moves. Courage means to push reform even when it is difficult, and to prove worthy, to tackle the hard bones, and to enter dangerous shoals. Steadiness is about keeping to the accurate direction, driving steadily, and, above all, to avoid disruptive mistakes.

The Russians must have been an understanding audience. Now, eight years later, Xi needs to find out how understanding the Chinese are.
________________

Notes

^*) Corrected – previous text:
… and “the consolidation of hard-earned achievements made in previous difficult missions” (我们巩固脱贫攻坚成果)
________________

Hebei Province: a Sense of Frost

^{Click picture for “Jimu News” video}

The following is not a translation but my loose repetition of some of its content – JR

Main link: “near zero degrees”

“I never thought that the drop in temperature would be that hefty,” “Jimu News” quotes a farmer from Guyuan County, Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province.
There had been a blue alert of cold weather, issued by the Zhangjiakou Meteorological Obervatory on Thursday afternoon (August 25), saying that temperatures could be as low as 1 to 4° Celsius in Kangbao County, Guyuan County, Shangyi County among other places in the morning of Saturday (August 27), and suggested that farmers took precautions.

The farmer sensed frost when waking up and then found frozen water in the courtyard’s basin. Rushing to his fields, he found that leaves of zuchini as well as zuchini in its early stages had been killed.

“Jimu News” got similar accounts from other farmers, but does not quantify the overall damage done in the region. The quoted farmer estimates his personal damage at about 40,000 yuan, while in a normal year, he would have made 80,000 yuan RMB from 10 mu. This year, his picking season would end one month early.

A trader from Shandong Province is quoted with expecations of higher prices. Some kind of common beans (芸豆) are said to have been at 9.4 yuan per kilogram on Friday, but to have risen to over 14 yuan per kilogram by Saturday.^*) Some areas had even stopped production, the trader is quoted.

Also from the trader’s point of view, based on five years of his own activity, frost has been early by one month, as it would usually be expected in late September.

Some web pages with the “Jimu News” article have been removed. The above draws on news.cnhubei.com content (also removed), but it still seems to be available elsewhere.

____________

Notes

*)	除此之外，芸豆的产量和价格也受到了影响。“26号芸豆还是4块7一斤，今天7块多了，基本上一天涨一块。”刘华说，即便收购价格还不错，但当地芸豆产量也不多了。

____________