Sino-Russian Joint Statement concerning the Deepening of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era

The following are my takeaways from the  current March 2023 “Sino-Russian Joint Statement concerning the Deepening of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era”.

Many topics had been touched upon before, in Beijing’s and Moscow’s “joint statement on international relations”, issued in Beijing in February 2022, but that statement had been issued shortly before Russia tried a full invasion of Ukraine.

According to the March 2023 statement, Sino-Russian relations are not similar to military and political alliances of the cold-war era, and not directed against third countries. Beijing and Moscow say they want to build “exemplary major-power relations” – viewing each others as “priority partners”, respecting each other all along, and treating each other as equals.

That’s basically the same model Xi Jinping tried to introduce into Chinese-American relations ten years ago, as described by Xinhua back then in June 2013, and further explained by Yang Jiechi, CPC Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group secretary at the time.

The March 2023 statement then highlights the usual emerging multi-polar world, one where “peace, development, cooperation and win-win are the unstoppable historic trend” (reads as if there had been no international cooperation before 2023), and an increasingly strong position of emerging markets and developing countries and where regional powers (地区大国, Russia? :)))  “resolutely defend their legitimate interests”.

^{Bragging in German, eating humble pie in Chinese: Sputnik/Rossya Segodnya propaganda celebrates first anniversary of full-scale Ukraine invasion as “dawn of a new world order (Febr 24, 2023) and covers Russia’s support for “China’s core interests” (March 22, 2023)}

Economic Cooperation

The two sides “adhere to the principle of mutual benefit” and intend to further deepen cooperation in the fields of modernisation.  A fair and predictable investment environment is to be created, and financial cooperation (with increased use of own currencies) and mutual supplies of agricultural products and food (互输农产品和粮食的多样性和供应量) are also on the agenda. There’s talk about diversity in those supplies, too, so it seems to avoid the question if this is meant to support food security in China, or if it is just meant to make Russian markets more diverse.
Increased use of own currencies isn’t a new topic. Xi Jinping raised the topic in a speech to a Gulf-Cooperation Council audience, too, in December last year, and Putin had advocated it as soon as in 2008. Cooperation on technology and innovation, such as AI, internet of things, 5G, low-carbon economy are also mentioned by the 2023 joint statement.

The remarks about iinvestment also refer to a Sino-Russian Investment Cooperation Planning Outline (中俄投资合作规划纲要), which is part of the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.  Supply chain stability and security, optimized trade structures and cooperation between small and medium-sized enterprises of both sides are to be promoted.

It’s hard to tell from declarations like this one how far it will help Russia to develop its economy, but it does probably throw Moscow an economic lifeline. That, however, goes without saying even without this month’s joint statement. China doesn’t want Putin to go under.

Russian-Ukrainian war

Which leads us to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The two sides express deep concern about comprehensive challenges for international security, express believe that there is a shared fate of all countries and peoples and that no country should achieve its own security at the costs of other countries’ security.
双方对国际安全面临的严峻挑战深表关切，认为各国人民命运与共，任何国家都不应以他国安全为代价实现自身安全。

It hadn’t read much differently in February 2022, a few weeks prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine:

The sides are gravely concerned about serious international security challenges and believe that the fates of all nations are interconnected. No State can or should ensure its own security separately from the security of the rest of the world and at the expense of the security of other States. The international community should actively engage in global governance to ensure universal, comprehensive, indivisible and lasting security.

Less obviously related to the Ukraine war, maybe, but from the 2023 statement, one year on:

The two sides emphasize the significance of the “Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races” and reaffirm that “a nuclear war cannot be won or won”.
双方强调《五个核武器国家领导人关于防止核战争与避免军备竞赛的联合声明》的重要意义，重申“核战争打不赢也打不得”。

How reliable this assurance will be, remains to be seen. Russia has toyed with nuclear threats during the past year, and continues to do so.

Multipolar World

In the broadly  and vaguely defined field of “terrorism”, the 2023 statement is more detailed than in that of 2022, demanding “objective, fair and professional” investigation of Nord Stream attack (应对“北溪”管线爆炸事件进行客观、公正、专业的调查) and agreeing to strengthening law enforcement cooperation concerning the “three evils”, including color revolutions, East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), transnational organized crime, economic crimes, and drugs trade. Listing ETIM, popular uprisings and organized crime in one go is certainly an intentional step to make the Sino-Russian public (and unknown swathes of international public opinion) get used to this kind of world view.

As for the world beyond bilateral relations, the multipolar one with the unstoppable historic trends of peace, development, cooperation and win-win, Beijing and Moscow emphasize “the democratization of international relations“, every country’s “right to choose its own path of development (with the likely exceptions of Taiwan and Ukraine, if it is up to China and Russia), and a continued implementation of the Agreement on Economic and Trade Cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Eurasian Economic Union signed on May 17, 2018.^*)

Taiwan

As mentioned before, “democratization of international relations” isn’t for everyone in the Sino-Russian statements  – not for Ukraine or Taiwan.

Russia reiterates its scrupulous respect of the one-China principle, acknowledges that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory, opposes any form of “Taiwan independence”, firmly supports China’s actions to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
(俄方重申恪守一个中国原则，承认台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分，反对任何形式的“台独”，坚定支持中方维护本国主权和领土完整的举措。)

Indeed, both issues. Ukraine and Taiwan, are closely related. Both China and Russia intend to annex foreign territory (Russia has already done so, although not to the extent  it would like to, and China, if it wants to attack Taiwan, will have to depend on its Russian hinterland. However, Moscow’s compliance with Beijing’s “one-China” charade is no particular hint into that direction, as it is being played along with by many other countries too, although in varying degrees. All the same, China’s planned aggression of its own, against Taiwan, is one of the reasons why it needs to cultivate relations with Moscow as closely as it does.

Military concerns

China and Russia (apparently) see U.S. in breach of Biological Weapons Convention, and call for institutionalized effective inspection mechanisms. Demands for  were quite likely included at Russia’s particular request. The Ukraine bioweapons conspiracy theory of March 2022 – a year ago – may remain a scarecrow in the Moscow muppet show, and probably works well on parts of the global public. The March 2023 statement deplores a U.S. “cold-war mentality” and the “negative influence” of the Indo-Pacific Strategy” on regional peace and stability in that region.

As far as Beijing and Moscow are concerned, NATO isn’t welcome in the Indo-Pacific either. The statement says that NATO should remain a regional (i. e. European) and defensive alliance. The statement also expresses concern about NATO “undermining” Asia-Pacific “peace & stability”.

Generally speaking, China seems to get more out of the strategic partnershp and the “major-power relationship” than Russia. That becomes obvious, because apart from the EAEU bits, most concerns are rather about China’s than about Russia’s. There are, however, demands that there should be no unilateral sanctions without approval of the United Nations Security Council (not an issue in the 2022), and a note that

the two sides oppose politization of international cultural cooperation, and discrimination against people in the fields of culture, education, science, and sports, based on nationality, language, religion, political or other beliefs, or national or social origin.
双方反对国际人文合作政治化，反对以国籍、语言、宗教、政治或其他信仰、民族或社会出身为由歧视文化、教育、科学、体育界人士。

This may be read as a hint to the “Olympic Committee”, among others.

Covid Pandemic

I’ve left that out here. Both Sino-Russian statements, Febr 2022 and March 2023, are full of it, with the usual complaints and demands, but the world is moving on.

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Note

*)

There needs to be a mention of the institution that are supposed to help bring about the multipolar world, according to Beijing and Moscow. That would be – according both to this month’s and the 2022 statements – the WTO (including remarks that can be read as a Chinese reaction to “discrimination” against it concerning the chip industry), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, G20, and APEC. Accession of the African Union was added to the G20 issue this time, but hadn’t been a year ago.

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Related / Updates

「主要重点是经济方面和高科技领域」, sputnik.cn, Mar 26, 2023
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Xi Jinping: “Immeasurable Splendor, many Tribulations”

The following is an excerpt from Xi Jinping’s acceptance speech on March 13 after his “re-election” as State Chairman of the PRC.

It starts with some pseudo-history: Xi doesn’t explicitly place “semi-colonialism” and “semi-feudalism” into the same number of years or centuries, but whoever would like to take away the impression that everything that went wrong in China was the fault of foreign imperialists is free to do so.

^{Oh-so honored}

This has become part of building narratives in Chinese propaganda; Xi took a similar approach when “retelling” the history of the Korean War. in 2020. The guise of innocence in international relations isn’t as much about openly lying, but to leave any aspects out of the stories that might be inconvenient.

Main Link:

Speech at the first session of the 14th National People’s Congress (在第十四届全国人民代表大会第一次会议上的讲话)

Delegates!
各位代表：

This assembly has elected me Chairman of the PRC for another term. I would like to express my sincere thanks for the trust all delegates and all the country’s nationalities have placed in me!
这次大会选举我继续担任中华人民共和国主席，我对各位代表和全国各族人民的信任，表示衷心感谢！
This is my third term at the sublime position as State Chairman. The people’s trust is my main motivation for further progress, and also a heavy responsibility to sholder. I will faithfully fulfill my duties as assigned by the constitution, with the needs of the state as my mission, the people’s interests as the criteria, I will work with devotion, wholeheartedly and respectfully, and never betray the great trust of the delegates and all the country’s nationalities!
这是我第三次担任国家主席这一崇高职务。人民的信任，是我前进的最大动力，也是我肩上沉甸甸的责任。我将忠实履行宪法赋予的职责，以国家需要为使命，以人民利益为准绳，恪尽职守，竭诚奉献，绝不辜负各位代表和全国各族人民的重托！

Delegates!
各位代表！

In it’s 5,000 years of civilizational history, the Chinese nation has created immeasurable splendor, and also been through many tribulations. During modernity¹⁾, China, step by step, became a semicolonial and semifeudal society, suffering from the great powers’ bullying and humiliation, being partitioned, undergoing the chaos of war, and the bitterness of the people being in terrible situations. The Communist Party of China has, after its foundation, tightly united and led all nationalities and people of the country, gone through a century of struggle, wiped out the national humiliation, the Chinese people has become master of its own destiny, the Chinese people have welcomed the huge leap²⁾ from standing up to getting rich, from getting rich to becoming strong. The Chinese nation has taken an irreversible historical turn.
具有五千多年文明史的中华民族，在历史上创造了无数辉煌，也经历过许多磨难。近代以后，中国逐步成为半殖民地半封建社会，饱受列强欺凌、四分五裂、战乱频繁、生灵涂炭之苦。中国共产党成立之后，紧紧团结带领全国各族人民，经过百年奋斗，洗雪民族耻辱，中国人民成为自己命运的主人，中华民族迎来了从站起来、富起来到强起来的伟大飞跃，中华民族伟大复兴进入了不可逆转的历史进程。

From now on to this mid-century, comprehensively building a strong, modern socialist country and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the entire party’s, the entire country’s and the entire people’s central duty. The relay baton of building a strong country and of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people has been assigned to us by history. In accordance with the party’s 20th National Congress’s srategic arrangements, we will coordinate and promote the general concept of the “Integration of the Five Dimensions”, coordinate the concept of the “Four Comprehensives”, accelerate the construction of Chinese-style modernization, unite and struggle, pioneer and innovate, and make contributions on the new journey that live up to the era, to history, to the people’s achievements, so as to promote the construction of a strong country and to the national rejuvenation!
从现在起到本世纪中叶，全面建成社会主义现代化强国、全面推进中华民族伟大复兴，是全党全国人民的中心任务。强国建设、民族复兴的接力棒，历史地落在我们这一代人身上。我们要按照党的二十大的战略部署，坚持统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局、协调推进“四个全面”战略布局，加快推进中国式现代化建设，团结奋斗，开拓创新，在新征程上作出无负时代、无负历史、无负人民的业绩，为推进强国建设、民族复兴作出我们这一代人的应有贡献！

[…]

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Notes

1)	Seems this could be translated as after modernity, but that wouldn’t make sense to me because 近代 – among Chinese, and not among Americans or Taiwanese – usually refers to the times from around 1912 and 1949. Among the latter, it would be from the late Ming dynasty to 1912.
2)	not to be confused with the “great leap forward” (see “Gasps of Admiration”, Xi’s “Resisting U.S., aiding Korea” commemorative speech, 2020)

“Three Proposals, concerning the Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas”

The following are translated excerpts from an article by China’s domestic radio network, CPBS. Links within blockquotes added during translation.
Main Link: “Suggestions for increased investment into the construction of rural infrastructure”

^{Han Fengxiang, CPBS coverage, March 10, 2023}

CPBS online, Beijing, March 10, Reporter Wang Chi. 2023’s No. 1 central document has made clear provisions concerning increased investment in rural infrastructure construction and the promotion of the rural industries’ high-quality development. Three proposals brought about by Han Fengxiang, delegate to the National People’s Congress and director of Fenghuangshan Agricultural Machinery Farmers Professional Cooperative in Lishu County, Siping City, Jilin Province, are closely related to the development of agriculture and rural areas. They are “Proposal concerning increased investment in large agricultural counties’ rural infrastructure”, “Proposal on increased support for integrated technology for black-soil conservation and practical solidification of food security foundations in Jilin”, and “Proposal for increased support for professional agricultural cooperatives”.
央广网北京3月10日消息（记者王迟）2023年中央一号文件对加强农业基础设施建设，推动乡村产业高质量发展等方面作出了明确规定。今年全国两会，全国人大代表、吉林省四平市梨树县凤凰山农机农民专业合作社理事长韩凤香带来的三份议案均与农业农村发展密切相关，分别为《关于加大对农业大县农村基础设施投入力度的建议》《关于加大黑土地保护集成技术支持力度 切实夯实吉林粮食安全根基的建议》《关于加大对农民专业合作社扶持力度的建议》。

[…]

Proposal to increase support for farmers’ professional cooperatives
There are currently agricultural 3,040 cooperatives in Lishu County. “Farmers have joined cooperatives to farm the land intensively. The level of mechanization and the production efficiency have seen great improvement. Apart from land dividends, they also increase incomes by working as agricultural machine operators, working outside the cooperative, etc.”, Han Fengxiang told this reporter.
建议加大对农民专业合作社的扶持力度
目前，梨树县有农民合作社3040个。“农民加入合作社，将土地进行集约经营，农业机械化水平和生产效率都有了很大提高，社员们除了土地分红，还通过在合作社当农机手、外出打工等增加收入。”韩凤香告诉记者。

Han Fengxiang said that taking Lishu County as an example, there are many cooperatives, but only 266 of them have reached above-county-level model cooperative standard^*), while most of them don’t meet the standards. They are rather small, without much strength, and low degrees of specialization. There are especially few large-scale specialized agricultural machinery cooperatives and cultivation cooperatives, and they could hardly meet the requirements of scales and standardization of all villages. To a certain degree, this had hampered the development of expanded farming.
韩凤香表示，以梨树县为例，合作社数量很多，但其中达到县级以上示范社标准的合作社仅有266家，多数合作社不够规范。规模较小、实力不强、专业化程度低，特别是大型农机农民专业合作社、养殖合作社较少，难以满足各村规模化、标准化作业需要，在一定程度上制约了规模化经营发展。

Therefore, Han Fengxiang suggests to continuously increase the extent of support for farmers’ and agricultural machinery specialization cooperatives, to improve complementary agricultural machinery subsidy standards, expand the scope of subsidies, and to strengthen the cooperatives’ motivation to update and to renew machines and equipment. Secondly, continuously bring into play the positive factors of cooperatives in socialization services, to explore business opportunities in line with local circumstances, thus safeguarding farmers’ incomes and protecting national food security at the same time.
为此，韩凤香建议进一步加大对农民农机专业合作社的扶持力度，提高配套农机具补贴标准，扩大补贴范围，增强合作社更新换代机械设备的积极性。其次，进一步发挥合作社在社会化服务中的积极作用，因地制宜探索适合本土的经营模式，既保证农民收益，又维护国家粮食安全。

[Contact data]

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Note

*)

Out of those 3,040 cooperatives in total, mentioned in the previous paragraph, that is. China’s central-goverment ministry of agriculture calls on agricultural departments of all provinces, “autonomous regions”, municipalities under the central government and of East Turkestan (Xinjiang) “to implement the central government’s requirements concerning the highlighting of developing new business units, and the deepened promotion of requirements for the stablishment of model farming cooperatives”.

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Related

黑土地保护法 , MOE, June 24, 2022
Qu Dongyu, FAO, Aug 1, 2019
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Xi’s Business Speech: The West has spat into your Porridge

China’s party, military and state leader Xi Jinping spoke to the CPPCC delegates of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce on Monday afternoon local time in Beijing.

One of the takeaways from his speech, probably not surprisingly, was  that he emphasized party leadership over business¹⁾. (Ask Jack Ma if he was surprised.)

^{习近平在看望参加政协会议的民建工商联界委员时强调 正确引导民营经济健康发展高质量发展，新闻联播，2023-03-06}

Maybe somewhat more strikingly, Xi went beyond the usual descriptions of a “difficult” etc. environment for China, and blamed  “containment carried out by Western countries under U.S. leadership” for at least some of the undeniable difficulties China is facing. He combined that with an emphasis on achievements of the past five years, using the phrase of “不易” again – i. e. achievements that hadn’t been easy to come by²⁾

What he did not mention was that no country in the world is obliged to throw first-class technology at China, and that it had been China that tested economic-coercion tools against countries like Australia and Lithuania.

The following is a short translated excerpt from Xi’s speech on Monday.

Xi Jinping pointed out that the five years that followed the party’s 19th National Congress have been extremely unusual and outstanding years. Our country’s external environment has suddenly changed. Uncertain factors that are hard to predict have significantly grown, and especially the Western countries under American leadership have carried out comprehensive containment, blockade and suppression, bringing unprecedented, serious challenges to our country. At the same time, we are facing a multitude of difficulties inside our country, such as repeated corona epidemics and growing downward pressure on the economy. We will adhere to the overall main key of seeking progress within stability, we will rise to the challenges, calmly respond, not believe in evil, we will not fear, won’t seek refuge, average GDP will grow by 5.2 percent, we won the fight against poverty as planned, built a society of moderate prosperity, reached the first two-centenary goal, promoted the party’s and nation’s achievements that have found global attention, and promoted our country’s steps into the construction of a new milestone of comprehensive socialist modernization. The successes of the past five years are the fruit of the entire party and the entire people unitedly struggling, showing the essence of the CPPCC representatives’ contributions.
习近平指出，党的十九大以来的5年，是极不寻常、极不平凡的5年。我国发展的外部环境急剧变化，不确定难预料因素显著增多，尤其是以美国为首的西方国家对我实施了全方位的遏制、围堵、打压，给我国发展带来前所未有的严峻挑战。同时国内也面临新冠疫情反复、经济下行压力增大等多重困难。我们坚持稳中求进工作总基调，迎难而上，沉着应对，不信邪、不怕压、不避难，国内生产总值年均增长5.2%，如期打赢脱贫攻坚战，全面建成小康社会，实现第一个百年奋斗目标，推动党和国家事业取得举世瞩目的重大成就，推动我国迈上全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程。5年来的成就，是全党全国人民团结奋斗的结果，也凝聚着广大政协委员的贡献。

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Notes

1)	「要引导民营企业和民营企业家正确理解党中央方针政策，增强信心、轻装上阵、大胆发展，实现民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。」
2)	「我们动态优化调整防控政策措施，较短时间实现了疫情防控平稳转段，新冠病亡率保持在全球最低水平，取得疫情防控重大决定性胜利。我们完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，着力构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展，在全球通胀达到40多年来新高的情况下，我国物价总水平保持平稳，全年经济增长3%，在世界主要经济体中是很高的。这些成绩的取得，实属不易。」 Previously: 来之不易 (not easy to come by).

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Related

China’s “multilateralism” only for big powers, CNN / Landsbergis, March 7, 2023
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CCTV Editorial: “The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference has special points of superiority”

The following is a translation of experpts from an editorial published by China Central Television (CCTV) on Sunday. Links within blockquotes added during translation.

The topic: the “Two Sessions”, i. e. the sessions of China’s rubberstamp “parliament”, the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

Main Link:

Attentive hearts, massed forces, going on an expedition full of glory and dreams together (凝心聚力，共赴充满光荣和梦想的远征)

^{From CCTV coverage (see “main link” above picture for source)}

[…]
[…] We have constantly deepened our knowledge of the patterns of the development of democratic politics, we have been successfull in shaping whole-process people’s democracy and in promoting whole-process people’s democracy, and, in the 20th National Congress‘s work report, made comprehensive arrangements concerning development of whole-process people’s democracy and concerning the guarantee that the people is the master in its own house. Whole-process people’s democracy has become a major iconic innovative achievement in the field of our country`s democratic policies in the new era. It has greatly strengthened the entire party’s and the entire people’s self-confidence and stamina concerning democratic politics under socialism with Chinese characteristics.
[…..] 我们不断深化对民主政治发展规律的认识，形成全过程人民民主的重大理念，推动全过程人民民主取得历史性成就，并在党的二十大报告中对发展全过程人民民主、保障人民当家作主作出全面部署。全过程人民民主成为新时代我国民主政治领域具有重大创新意义的标志性成果，极大地增强了全党全国人民对中国特色社会主义民主政治的自信和底气。
As an organization of the United Front, a mechanism for multi-party cooperation and political consultation, and an important form of realizing people’s democracy, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference has special points of superiority under many aspects. Secretary general Xi Jinping gives a high level of attention to the CPPCC’s work, has thoroughly described the CPPCC’s mission and tasks in the new era, summarized the requirements to put efforts into key projects, to promote the two big issues of unity and democracy, to adhere to efforts both to advising and aggregating consensus, to effectively bringing into play the CPPCC’s superiorities and purpose, as well as to bring together the broad knowledge and strength of all parties, groups, nationalities, classes and personalities of all walks of life.
人民政协作为统一战线的组织、多党合作和政治协商的机构、人民民主的重要实现形式，具有多方面的独特优势。习近平总书记高度关注政协工作，深刻阐述新时代人民政协工作的使命任务、总体要求、着力重点，推动人民政协坚持团结和民主两大主题，坚持建言资政和凝聚共识双向发力，有效发挥人民政协在国家治理体系中的优势和作用，广泛凝聚起各党派、各团体、各民族、各阶层、各界人士的智慧和力量。
This year’s Two Sessions are following the victorious end of the 20th National Congress. To hold them well is of major significance and to promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with the party’s magnificent blueprint, to transform it, by statutory procedures, into joint people’s action, to bring the superiority of Communist Party of China’s leadership and the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics well into play, and to boost the morale of sons and daughters of China at home and abroad to be of one mind and of the same direction.
今年全国两会是在党的二十大胜利闭幕后召开的换届大会。开好这次大会，把党的二十大擘画的以中国式现代化推进中华民族伟大复兴的宏伟蓝图通过法定程序转化为国家意志和人民共同行动，对于发挥好中国共产党领导的政治优势和中国特色社会主义的制度优势，鼓舞海内外中华儿女心往一处想、劲往一处使，具有重大意义。
A great cause must be promoted step by step, and achieving magnificent goals requires the struggle of one generation after another. The delegates who are starting a new journey with a new term must have two broad pictures on their minds, improve their political stance, conscientiously carry out their duties, and take their own initiative toward success. They must thoroughly study and comprehensively implement Xi Jinping’s ideology of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, make the propaganda of learning the 20th National Congress spirit their most important task, keeping to it during the entire process of their duties. […]
[…]
伟大的事业要一程接一程向前推进，实现宏伟目标需要一代又一代人接续奋斗。步入新征程，新一届全国人大代表、全国政协委员要胸怀两个大局，提高政治站位、认真履职尽责、主动担当作为。要深入学习全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，把学习宣传贯彻党的二十大精神作为首要政治任务，贯穿于履职全过程。[…..]

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Yang Liwei’s big family, March 21, 2019
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China’s Position: Ukraine still hopes for the Best

On February 27, Ukraine issued a rejection of sorts of China’s February 24 position paper “on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”. Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, told “Freedom TV”  that the only effective measure the position paper called for was “immediate cessation of fire.”

“This means that Russia will remain in the occupied territories, we will have a new dividing line, and we will have a slow absorption of Ukraine. That is, the slow death of Ukraine,” the TV station quoted Pdolyak.

The rejection from Zelensky’s office, but only in an unofficial interview, suggests that Kiev doesn’t want to anger Beijing and possibly provoke Chinese lethal-arms supplies to Russia that wouldn’t happen otherwise.

^{中共中央外事工作委员会办公室主任王毅会见乌克兰外长库列巴，慕尼黑，Febr 18, 2023}

In an article published on March 3, “Freedom TV” quotes interviewees as saying that “it is too early to say that China is openly opposing Ukraine”. China’s “global ambitions”, its long common border with Russia, and its dependence on Russian energy supplies as well as the two countries’ traditional alliance are quoted as factors supporting the bilateral relationship, but “Beijing will not sacrifice its own well-being because of Russia, experts are sure”.

Part of China’s “well-beings” is the arable land it owns in Ukraine. It shouldn’t be too difficult to replace, given that Beijing’s investment companies are scouting all continents for farmable land to buy or rent, but it wouldn’t be fun to see the goose being killed by Russia – even if it isn’t quite the “golden” goose.

Besides, at least one of “Voice of America’s” interlocutors, Taiwan International Strategic Study Society director Ching-Sheng Lo (羅慶生), took a rather critical view of China’s food security, a year ago.

Lo Ching-Sheng says: “Having bought that much grain, with storage for a year and a half, there’s nothing to care about – no problem in the short run. If this should turn into an Afghanistan kind of war of twenty years, China’s problems will be very big.”
罗庆生说：“因为中国买了太多粮食的关系，它储存了一年半的粮食，所以一年半之内它不会有事情，所以短期的话没问题。长期的话，如果说变成阿富汗战争那个样子打个20年，那中国的问题就很大了。”

But the Russian hinterland will count more than Ukraine – be it for China’s “global ambitions”, be it for its food security. Beijing took a speaking decision in early February, 2022, a few weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Answer to the unfolding crisis: more grain imports from Russia.

Ukraine’s hopes on China are unreasonably high. As Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote,

The party can survive setbacks in the chip war, but the stakes are much higher in the fight for food security. Failure on the food security front will threaten the survival of the regime.

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Kuleba addresses Asia, March 22, 2022

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