Ma Ying-jeou: “A Considerable Threat Continues to Exist in the Taiwan Strait”

Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou spoke about cross-strait relations in an interview with the BBC‘s Carrie Gracie this month. There is a three-minutes’ video on youtube, and Radio Taiwan International‘s (RTI) Chinese service has a transcript of the interview.

I have based my following translation – not necessarily accurate – on the RTI transcript. Links with in the following Q & A were inserted during translation.

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[Asked what his feelings are about China being both an important trading partner and a cause of security threats]

A: We are only some 100 nautical miles away from mainland China, and to us, China is a big risk risk, and also a big opportunity. Any leader of the Republic of China should learn to reduce risks and to expand opportunities, and what I have done during the past seven years is exactly that.

總統：我們與大陸只有大概100多海浬左右的距離，中國大陸對我們來說是很大的風險，也是很大的機會。任何中華民國的領導人都應該學習把風險減少、把機會擴大，而我過去7年來做的就是這件事。

Our economic relations with mainland China, (language and culture), coincide in fairly many ways, while the developmental stages of both sides aren’t identical. Over the past decades, our trade volume with mainland China has continuously risen, and our trade surplus has been huge. The goods we sell to mainland China can be processed further there, be sold to Europe and North America, and this stage has been of mutual benefit in the past.

我們與大陸間的經濟關係，(語言文化上)有相當多一致的地方，而雙方的經濟發展階段並不一樣。過去幾十年當中，我們與大陸的貿易量一直增加，我方享有的順差也非常龐大。我們銷往大陸的貨品會再經過他們加工，賣到歐洲及北美，這樣的關係在過去的階段是互利的。

Of course, mainland Chinese threats stem from the military and the political field, and some people believe that deepening trade and investment relations with mainland China leads to excessive dependence on mainland China. To consider and weigh political and military threats, the mode our government adopted has been to find some consensus that is acceptable to both sides, and to shelve differences. In terms of the economy and trade, obviously, Taiwan can’t avoid some dependence on mainland China, but since I took office, dependence on mainland China has actually decreased, because the government has started the work of market diversification, leading to Taiwan’s trade dependence on mainland China not increasing further, but rather slightly decreasing.

大陸對我們的威脅當然還是來自軍事與政治方面，有些人認為，與大陸的貿易和投資加深，會造成對大陸過度依賴。考量政治與軍事的風險，我們政府採取的方式，就是找出雙方都可以接受的一些共識、擱置歧見。在經濟及貿易方面，台灣當然不可避免部分依賴大陸，但從我上任後，對大陸的依賴程度反而減少了，因為政府開始做好分散市場的工作，使得台灣對大陸的貿易依賴沒有再增加，反而有少許的減少。

[Asked if he believes that China is moving towards democratization, in a long-term trend]

問：習近平上任後，全世界都在期待中國大陸是否會往民主的方向發展，您認為未來中國大陸走向民主化是一個長久趨勢嗎？

A: During the past few years, I have constantly reminded the mainland Chinese authorities that if you want to narrow the psychological gap between the Taiwanese and the mainland Chinese people, freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law, these core values of Taiwan, are important factors.  If mainland China were more active concerning these issues, the distance could be narrowed, but also, if there wouldn’t be more positive activity, the distance could also widen. In the past few years, the trends and changes in the psychological gap have also clearly reflected the actual attitude of mainland Chinese authorities in recent years.

總統：在過去幾年中，我不斷提醒大陸當局，想要拉近台灣與大陸人民心理上的差距，很重要的因素就是自由、民主、人權及法治，這些台灣所擁有的核心價值。如果在這些議題，大陸做得更積極，距離就可以拉近，同樣的，如果他沒有更積極的作為，距離就會拉遠。在過去幾年，心理差距的變化趨勢也清楚反映出大陸當局近幾年實際的態度。

On these issues, mainland China has seen good and bad times, sometimes somewhat better, sometimes worsening somewhat, thus remaining in a state of uncertainty.
中國大陸在這些議題上，他們一直是時好時壞，有時候好一點，有時候惡化一點，因此還處於不確定的狀態。

When I was running for re-election four years ago, mainland Chinese people were able to watch our elections on the internet, which was unprecedented. But recently, we have also seen many arrests of human rights activists, making everyone feel worried about mainland China’s human rights situation. Therefore, the feelings their situation causes us are sometimes good, sometimes bad.

在我4年前競選連任時，大陸人民可以透過網路看我們的選舉情況，這是過去都沒有的。但另外我們也看到，最近有很多維權人士被逮捕，使得大家對大陸人權情況惡化感到憂心，所以他們的情況給我的感覺是時好時壞。

[Asked if he feels angry about not having had an opportunity to met Xi Jinping after his efforts to improve relations]

A: Since I assumed office, one can say that cross-strait relations have improved, no matter if we look at economic aspects, cultural aspects, etc.. Therefore, a meeting between the leaders of the two sides would be a natural thing.  During the last two years, we have thought about the APEC summits as an opportunity to meet, but always without success, and of course, that’s a pity. Our current position is to neither rule a meeting out, nor to insist.

從我上任後，兩岸不論在經濟、文化等各方面的關係，都可以說有很大的進展，因此雙方領導人碰面應該是很自然的事情。過去兩年中，我們本來想利用亞太經合會(APEC)的機會碰面，但始終沒有成功，這當然是非常可惜的事情。我們目前的態度還是不排除、但也不會強求。

[Asked if he thinks that not to meet is Xi Jinping’s personal decision, taken from a too arbitrary  (過於獨斷) position]

A: We don’t know their decision-making process, of course, but certainly, the final decision lies with Mr. Xi. Maybe some of our views just differ, because we feel that in the process of developing cross-strait relations, some encounters on international occasions are unavoidable, but mainland Chinese leaders may try their best not to appear with us on international occasions, as they worry this could be against the so-called “One-China policy”. But what I would like to emphasize is that we have said clearly on many occasions that when we reached the “1992 consensus”, it just meant that the two parties both maintain the “One-China principle”, but the meaning we give to it is not identical. Only with this flexibility, the two parties can establish better relations. However, once it comes to international occasions, mainland China remains very unflexible in this regard.

我們當然不知道他們的決策過程如何，但是最後一定是由習先生拍板確定。我們可能跟他採取一些不同的看法，因為我們覺得在兩岸關係的發展過程中，不可避免地會在國際場合碰到，但是中國大陸儘可能避免在國際場合與我們同時出現，因為擔心這樣會違反所謂的「一個中國」原則。不過，我要強調的是，我們在許多場合都曾清楚說明，當初達成「九二共識」就是指雙方都堅持「一個中國」的原則，但是所賦予的涵義並不相同；有此彈性，雙方才能建立更友好的關係。然而一旦到了國際場合，中國大陸在這方面非常僵硬。

[Asked if Xi Jinping’s statement that the cross-strait issue couldn’t be dragged from generation to generation constitutes a threat to Taiwan]

A: I believe that this way of putting it, makes things look as if they had been delayed for a long time. In fact, the two sides having relatively close and friendly relations has only been going on for these seven years. I often say that seven years can’t count as a generation. Patient handling is required. The two sides have been apart for more than sixty years. The atmosphere can’t be changed over night. We believe that cross-strait relations should be promoted patiently and diligently, to let the fruits gradually emerge.

總統：我覺得他這個說法好像我們已經延誤很久了，實際上兩岸之間有比較密切友好的關係也才不過這7年而已，我常說7年不能算是一代，需要耐心來處理，畢竟雙方隔海分治已經60多年了，不可能一個晚上就改變氣氛。我們覺得應該以耐心且很用心地來推動兩岸關係，讓成果逐漸展現。

In fact, the fruits brought about by the cross-strait relations’ development during the past seven years have already surpassed those of the previous fifty years which is very fast, but in the view of the Taiwanese people, they do not wish to move too quickly but to gradually achieve the goal of improved relations.

事實上，在過去7年間，兩岸關係發展所帶來的成果已超過前面的50幾年，這已經算非常快了，但是對台灣民眾而言，他們也不希望走得太快，而是希望逐步達成關係改善的目標。

[Asked if recent mainland Chinese military exercises and their use of the Republic of China’s presidential palace as an imaginary target made him feel uneasy]

A: According to intelligence we’ve collected in the past, they have used mock objects for simulated attacks for a long time. When we conduct military exercises, we also put out defense against such designs. [Mainland Chinese] action of this kind just reminds us that in the Taiwan Strait, in the military field, a considerable threat continues to exist, against which we must prepare.

根據我們過去所蒐集到的情資，他們以台灣做為模擬攻擊的對象已有很長的時間。我方進行軍事演習時，也會針對他們這種設計做出防衛。這個動作只是提醒我們，兩岸之間在軍事領域仍有相當大的威脅存在，我們必須做好防備。

[Asked if the threat against Taiwan doesn’t rise with mainland Chinese military and economic strength]

A: In fact, the balance across the Taiwan Strait, in military terms, has tilted in favor of mainland China, beginning in 2005. Because very year, at a pace of double-digit numbers, and even at a pace of twenty per cent, they increase their national defense budget. It would be difficult for us to engage in an arms race with the mainland in this regard. Therefore, our principle in defense combat is to create a bilateral situation in which any party that wants to use one-sided, non-peaceful means to change the status quo must pay a price it doesn’t want to pay. That’s the only feasible major principle to prevent a cross-strait military conflict. Peace and prosperity have always been the goals of our efforts.

實際上從2005年開始，台灣海峽在軍事方面的均衡是朝大陸傾斜的，因為他們每一年皆以將近兩位數、甚至於將近百分之20的速度在增加國防預算，我們很難在這方面與大陸從事軍備競爭。因此，我方現在所採取的防衛作戰原則就是要造成一種雙邊情勢，使得任何一方要用片面、非和平方式改變現狀時，會付出其不想付的代價，這是唯一能夠阻止兩岸發生軍事衝突的重要原則。和平與繁榮一向都是我們努力的目標。

What I mean is that cross-strait relations exist into all kinds of directions. As for military threats, we must think about ways to reduce them, but in non-military fields, we also want to think about ways to increase them. Therefore, in our dealings with mainland China, we will always see these different directions.

我剛剛的意思是，兩岸之間各種面向的關係都存在，軍事的威脅我們要想辦法減少，而非軍事方面的合作，我們要想辦法增加，所以我們與大陸打交道，永遠有這些不同的面向。

What we prepare for our annual Han Kuang military exercises is just that kind of defense operations, and we have exactly these points in the Han Kuang military exercises. I’m sorry that we can’t disclose these to you. I can’t disclose related details, but we do prepare for conflict scenarios.

而我們每一年漢光演習準備的就是這些防禦作戰，至於我們漢光演習做了哪些科目，很抱歉我們沒有辦法向您透露。我不能透露這些相關細節，但是兩岸之間可能發生衝突的情況，我們要預先做準備。

[Asked if he feels unsatisfied with this.]

A: Of course.

當然。

[Asked if given mainland Chinese military budget increases, and American strategic ambiguity concerning Taiwan, America shouldn’t be more clear about its attitude towards Taiwan, or guarantee support for Taiwan under certain circumstances – and if Obama would be in a position to do this]

A: As for America, the “Taiwan Relations Act” regulations are plain. Of course, we cannot rely on American law and regulations, but on our own preparedness. And our preparations aren’t just about adopting defense measures, but we should, by means of politics and cross-strait relations, eliminate chances for this situation [of military conflict] to occur. Therefore, as for the Taiwanese defense lines against mainland China that I’ve just mentioned, the first line is not about aircraft and artillery, but about reconciliation [or amicable settlement], and thus reducing the risk of conflict erupting, and only this is one of the highest strategies. This is also exactly what Sunzi’s “Art of War” means when saying that  “the highest form of generalship is to balk [or counter-attack] the enemy’s plans”.

對美國來講，「台灣關係法」已明文規定。當然我們不能靠美國法律的規定，我們要靠自己的準備，而我們的準備不只是從軍事上做好防禦的措施，更應該從政治上、兩岸關係上，消除這種情況出現的機會，所以我剛提及台灣對大陸的防線，第一道防線不是飛機、大砲，而是兩岸的和解，透過兩岸的和解，使得兩岸發生衝突的機會減少，這才是一個最高的謀略，也就是「孫子兵法」所說的「上兵伐謀」。

[Pressed on whether he would hope for a clear American presidential defense statement in favor of Taiwan if attacked by mainland China]

A: In fact, this problem has always existed during the past sixty years. But during the past seven years, America didn’t need to issue these statements, but could also make the Taiwan Strait maintain peace. The most important key is that this risk is reduced after improving relations with mainland China. The official in charge of cross-strait relations in the U.S. State Department has repeatedly reiterated that stable development of cross-strait relations is an important factor of maintaining constructive relations with Taiwan. In other words, simply relying on America to come to our help to fight this battle. Rather, by lowering this risk to the lowest possible level, by reducing the risk of conflict to a minimum, that’s the highest strategy, and also exactly about “balking the enemy’s plans”.

事實上，在過去60年當中，這個問題一直存在，可是在過去的7年當中，美國已經不需要做這些聲明，但是一樣可以讓台海維持和平，最重要的關鍵是我們與大陸改善關係之後，使得這種風險變少了。美國國務院主管兩岸事務的官員一再重申，兩岸關係的穩定發展，是他們與台灣維持建設性關係的重要因素，換言之，我們不能光靠美國來幫我們打這個仗，而是我們把這種可能的風險降到最低、可能的衝突減少到最少，這才是最高的戰略，也就是「上兵伐謀」。