The Beijing Times (京华时报) covered the message from an “urban development blue book” by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on August 14. Enorth (Tianjin) republished the Beijing Times’ article on August 15:
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Urban Development and Environmental Research Institute published an Urban blue book, “China Urban Development Report (2012), yesterday. The blue book points out that within the coming twenty years, China will have nearly 500 million farmers who need to become urbanized, and that this will come at a cost of at least 40,000 billion to 50,000 billion Yuan.
昨天，中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所发布城市蓝皮书《中国城市发展报告(2012)》。蓝皮书指出，今后20年内，中国将有近5亿农民需要实现市民化，为此至少需要40万亿-50万亿元的成本。
The blue book points out that the transformation from rural to urban society spells singular and major social change.If future urbanization in China push on at a rate of 0.8 to one percentage point in the future, China’s urbanization rate will be at more than 60 percent by 2020. This also means that within the coming twenty years, China will have more than 200,000,000 farmers who will need jobs and places to live in cities and towns, in addition to farmers who came there during recent years and haven’t yet completed urbanization. In future, the country will see 400 million to 500 million farmers who need to achieve urbanization.
蓝皮书指出，从乡村型社会向城市型社会转型是一次重大的社会变革。如果未来中国的城镇化率以每年0.8-1.0个百分点的速度推进，到2020年前后中国的城镇化率将超过60%。这同时意味着，今后20年内，中国将有2亿多农民需要转移到城镇就业和居住，再加上近年来已经进入城镇但还没有完全市民化的农民，未来全国将有4亿-5亿农民需要实现市民化。
According to reliminary calculations, solving social insurance and public services issues alone will cost at least 100,000 Yuan per capita. Within the next twenty years, costs at at least 40,000 billion to 50,000 billion Yuan will arise.
据初步测算，仅解决社会保障和公共服务，农民市民化成本至少人均10万元。在未来20年内，至少需要支付40万亿-50万亿元的成本。
Researcher and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies’ deputy director Wei Houkai said that currently, needs in places far away from the cities were still very different. Seen from the ways of life and living standards, a great number of migrant workers, of farmers who lived in urban outskirts without permanent residence, and the large numbers of farmers who lost their land in the urbanization process, hadn’t really blended into the cities, their ways of life and consumption patterns remained retained the rural ways of life and characteristics, and their degree of urbanization was low.
中国社科院城环所副所长魏后凯研究员表示，目前中国离城市型社会的要求还具有较大的差距。从生活方式标准看，大量进城务工的农民工、郊区就地转化的农转非居民以及县改区中存在的大量农民，没有真正融入城市，其生活方式和消费方式仍然保留着农民的习惯和特征，市民化程度低。
The blue book also shows that in 2011, urban population in China was at 691 million, an urbanization rate of 51.27 percent, and that urban population therefore exceeded rural population. That urbanization exceeded 50 percent was a historic change in Chinese societal structure. It showed that China had moved past the era of rural-based society, and had started entering into an era of mainly urban-based society.
蓝皮书还显示，2011年，中国城镇人口达到6.91亿，城镇化率达到51.27%，城镇常住人口超过了农村常住人口。人口城镇化率超过50%，这是中国社会结构的一个历史性变化，表明中国已经结束了以乡村型社会为主体的时代，开始进入到以城市型社会为主体的新的城市时代。
Good luck, city: I’m on my way!
China Daily, a propaganda paper for foreign consumption, quotes the blue book as saying that the ratio of urbanites’ disposable income to rural residents’ net income reached 3.13 last year, but given that about 40 percent of farmers’ net income was used to purchase chemical fertilizer, pesticide, seeds and other means of production [and given that no similar costs arise for urban citizens, apparently], urban income in China was actually about 5.2 times that of the countryside. That income gap figure was about 26 percent higher than that of 1997, notes the report.
Basically in the context of these reports, Liaoning Daily (also republished by Enorth) reports on Dalian’s (Liaoning Province) official reaction to the challenges:
To adhere to a perfect urbanization, the building of new industries (新型工业化), urban wisdom and agricultural modernization, a civilized, modern international city will be built in an overall plan for these “four modernizations”1), for the improvement of our city’s comprehensive competitiveness. These are the Dalian Municipal Committee’s thoughts on the continuous strengthening of Dalian’s development stamina through an overall plan for coordinated interaction.
本报讯记者刘国华报道“坚持全域城市化、新型工业化、城市智慧化和农业现代化，在‘四化’统筹、协调推进中提升城市综合竞争力，努力建设富庶美丽文明的现代化国际城市。 ”这是近日大连市委提出的通过“四化”统筹、协调互动，进一步增强大连发展后劲的城市发展新思路。
In recent years, Dalian, with scientific development concepts as guidance, firmly grasped the revitalization of the old northeastern industrial bases, and the two-fold opportunities of developing and opening Liaoning’s coastal economy, economic development, opening up to the outside world, and other aspects of achieving comprehensive improvement, rather good effects in raising Liaoning’s leading role in the northeastern region. This year, Dalian, in accordance with the requirements and on the foundations of “seeking progress in stability, and pace within stability”, by means of the soft-environment-building year and other measures, maintained economic and stable and rather rapid growth. During the first half of this year, the entire city achieved a regional total output value of 340.1 billion Yuan [more precisely, 340,090 million] Yuan (a growth by 10.1 percent), public revenues of 37.47 billion yuan (19 percent growth), social consumption products retail sales2) at 104.64 billion Yuan (15.2 percent growth), average disposable incomes per capita of 13,934 Yuan (14.1 percent growth), farmers’ average cash income of 9,262 Yuan (14.8 percent growth), with the main economic indicators achieving a “double-surpassing” of the previous [year-on-year?] half-year.
近年来，大连市以科学发展观为统领，紧紧抓住东北老工业基地振兴和辽宁沿海经济带开发开放双重机遇，经济发展、对外开放等方面均实现了全面提升，较好地起到了辽宁乃至东北地区的龙头带动作用。今年以来，大连市按照“稳中求进、稳中求快”的总基调，通过深入开展软环境建设年活动等多种措施，保持了经济的平稳较快增长。上半年，全市实现地区生产总值3400.9亿元，增长10.1%；公共财政预算收入374.7亿元，增长19%；社会消费品零售总额1046.4亿元，增长15.2%；城市居民人均可支配收入13934元，增长14.1%；农民人均现金收入9262元，增长14.8%。主要经济指标实现“双过半”。
The Dalian Municipal Committee and the city government believe that by now, in competition between developed cities within China, raising their comprehensive competitiveness has become the main direction of impact. To cut new edges in the coming round of fierce competition, if it can solve difficulties, and always maintain a leading position, Dalian needs to cast its sight at the future and to clearly develop new ideas.
大连市委、市政府认为，目前，国内发达城市之间的竞争，都已开始将提升综合竞争力作为主攻方向。面对新一轮的激烈竞争，大连能否争创新优势，破解难题，始终保持相对领先地位，迫切需要着眼未来，明确发展新思路。
In July this year, Dalian city held the Perfect City Chemical Industry congress, and issued the “China Communist Dalian Municipal Committee and Dalian City Government Numerous Opinions concerning Acceleration and Promotion of Perfect Urbanization”, “Dalian City Implementation Plan for the Acceleration and Promotion of Perfect Urbanization, and “the “Dalian City Policies pertaining Acceleration and Promotion of Perfect Urbanization”. Perfection of urbanization and the city and countryside overall improvement plans are are important measures to solve the bottleneck problems. […] The focus on agricultural modernization is on urban modern agriculture.
今年7月，大连市召开全域城市化工作会议，颁布了《中共大连市委、大连市人民政府关于加快推进全域城市化的若干意见》、《大连市加快推进全域城市化实施方案》、《大连市加快推进全域城市化的相关政策》。全域城市化，统筹城乡全面提升，是解决大连发展瓶颈的重要举措。[在这次会议上，大连市出台了具有突破性的一揽子鼓励政策，涵盖了基础设施、产业发展、土地保障、户籍管理、融资支持、公共服务、社会保障、城镇改革8个方面，力度之大，前所未有；大连市提出的新型工业化就是要建立起结构优化、技术先进、清洁安全、附加值高、吸纳就业能力强的现代产业体系，重点是推进传统产业升级和发展战略性新兴产业，全力以赴用5年左右时间，培育若干千亿级龙头企业和产业集群；城市智慧化系依托新一代信息技术，通过网络普及、智能化管理，构筑信息资源共享、城市运转高效、公共服务便捷、诚信体系完备的品质之城；]农业现代化重点是发展都市型现代农业。
The mutually supportive “four modernizations and coordinated promotion will surely promote Dalian’s economic and social development, and its leap to a new level.
“四化”相互支撑，协调推进，必将推动大连经济社会发展跃升新水平。
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Notes
1) a term based on the original concept of “Four Modernizations” first set out by Zhou Enlai, and again in 1978.
2) Social consumption is a term frequently connected with “ethical consumption” elsewhere – that’s not how it is meant here, and it most probably simply means household consumption. Your expertise is welcome; just use the commenting function for your definitions or explanations.
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» Tianjin Municipal Committee, July 20, 2011
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