Russian Political Scientist: “So-Called Orange-Forces’ Attempts will Fizzle Out”

Radio Moscow QSL, 1980s

Radio Moscow QSL, 1980s

Stimme Russlands (Voice of Russia, in German), September 24, 2011, 16:00 GMT, 12,010 kHz. Translation:

You are listening to the news from the Voice of Russia, read by Vera Grant.1)

Moscow. Russian premier Vladimir Putin, who wants to run for another term as president in 2012, can be re-elected afterwards, according to political scientist Vyacheslav Nikonov. In 2024, Dmitry Medvedev could come to the fore again. “It seems that we are witnessing a long-term solution of the situation in Russia. We now know the setup of Russian power until 2036, the political scientist added. Nikonov found the platform presented by the Kremlin party exquisitely practical. “There were mentions of ambitious goals which are in fact not quite that ambitious, such as becoming one of the world’s five largest economies. I believe Russia will be up to that if it develops with seven per cent growth. I believe that we can become the fifth-largest global economy and the biggest in Europe by 2020”, Nikonov said. The upcoming presidential elections weren’t to produce notable surprises, except that there could be new faces among the candidates, such as Mikhail Prokhorov2). Also, there could be attempts of unconstitutional activities by so-called orange powers. These however would fizzle out, according to the political scientist.

Some of the more judgmental wording within Vyacheslav Nikonov’s comments was put into quotation marks by RIA Novosti news agency, which originally authored the report. The quotation marks provide the written report with an air of impartiality which wasn’t noticeable as the news was read out on the air. The news agency’s report was apparently used as the only source for the Voice of Russia’s German department’s newscast concerning the election arrangement (a slight error of omission RIA Novosti’s report included was also faithfully read out).

Vyacheslav Nikonov‘s given name is also frequently spelled Vjatsheslav Nikonov.

He is a grandson of Vyacheslav Molotov, Stalin’s minister of foreign affairs. According to a paper by Victor Yasmann for the Jamestown Foundation in 1995, Nikonov was a Komsomol activist during the (late) Soviet era, and was also politically active after the USSR’s collapse.  He is president of the Russkiy Mir Foundation, and the foundation’s website features a detailed bio.

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Notes

1) The original, in German:

soundtrack »

Sie hören Nachrichten von der Stimme Russlands, am Mikrofon begrüßt Sie Vera Grant. Moskau. Der russische Premier Vladimir Putin, der 2012 für eine weitere Amtszeit als Präsident kandidieren will, kann laut dem Politologen Wjatscheslaw Nikonow danach wiedergewählt werden. Im Jahr 2024 könnte dann erneut Dmitri Medwedjew das Ruder übernehmen. “Allem Anschein nach sind wir Zeugen einer langfristigen Lösung der politischen Situation in Russland geworden.  Jetzt kennen wir die Konfiguration der russischen Macht für einen recht langen Zeitraum. Es ist offensichtlich, dass Putin in dieser Situation die Möglichkeit bekommt, für die nächsten zwölf Jahre in Russland die Staatsführung zu übernehmen – falls im Land nichts Außergewöhnliches geschieht”, sagte Nikonow am Samstag zu den am Parteitag von Geeintes Russland anwesenden Journalisten. “Ich schließe nicht aus, dass ihn danach Medwedew ablöst. Das bedeutet, dass wir möglicherweise bereits die russische Machtkonfiguration bis zum Jahr 2036 kennen”, fügte der Politologe hinzu. Das von Putin auf dem Parteitag vorgestellte Programm der Kreml-Partei nannte Nikonow “ausnehmend praktisch”. “Es wurden ehrgeizige Pläne genannt, die in Wirklichkeit gar nicht so ehrgeizig sind – etwa der Einzug in die fünf größten Wirtschaften der Welt. Ich denke, Russland ist dem gewachsen, wenn es sich mit dem von Putin genannten Tempo von sieben Prozent entwickelt. Ich denke, wir können bis 2020 die fünftgrößte Wirtschaft der Welt und die größte in Europa werden”, so Nikonow. Die bevorstehenden Präsidentenwahlen werden dem Experten zufolge keine nennenswerten Überraschungen bringen – außer, dass unter den Kandidaten möglicherweise neue Gesichter zu sehen [sic] werden, wie etwa Michail Prochorow.
Außerdem könne es zu Versuchen unkonstitutioneller Handlungen von Seiten sogenannter oranger Kräfte kommen. Diese werden laut dem Politologen jedoch im Sand verlaufen.

2) Mikhail Prokhorov bio at Wikipedia »

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Related

» No “Quadriga” for Nobody, July 18, 2011

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One Comment to “Russian Political Scientist: “So-Called Orange-Forces’ Attempts will Fizzle Out””

  1. Great, Putin and Putin’s Mini-Me for the next 25 years, Puting not leaving until he’s 72. Come back, Brezhnev, all is forgiven!

    Meanwhile, being the top economy in Europe is going to be a bit difficult when your entire economy consists of oil and weapons exports – although these two products do have what businessmen call “a certain kind of synergy” between them. Basically the Russian economy would have to more than double to top Germany’s – basically growth would have to exceed 8% for ten years in a row, with the German economy standing still. Growth this year is forecasted at less than 5%, a rate which will not allow it to even break into the top five economies in the next ten years.

    Putin’s original goal, back in 2000, was to exceed the (then) per-capita GDP of Portugal by 2015. In PPP terms, Portugal’s PPP per capita GDP in 2000 was roughly 16,000 US$, and its nominal GDP per capita about 10,600 US$ (year 2000 prices throughout) . Present Russia per capita GDP is about 15,600 in PPP terms and 10,000 in nominal terms (2010 prices – I couldn’t seem to find any reliable stats for 2000 prices). So I guess he’s roughly acheived that.

    Like

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