Taiwan Survey: 50.5 Per Cent Expect Peace Agreement with China, if Ma is Reelected

32.3 per cent of respondents to a regular Global Views Research Center (GVRC) survey , published on July 20, approve of Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou, while 55.1 per cent disapprove.
Public trust was at 40.2 per cent, while 43.5 per cent gave a negative evaluation.

Compared to the June 20 data, Ma’s approval rating has gone down by 2.0 per cent, and public trust by 0.6 per cent. In June, Ma’s approval rate had risen by o.4 per cent, and public trust in him had gone down by 1.2 per cent.

More worryingly for the Ma administration, the July numbers seem to suggest that more people than in June have made up their mind now, and mostly to Ma’s disadvantage. His support rate fell from 41.2 per cent (June) to 37.3 per cent (July), only 0.1 per cent ahead of DPP presidential nominee Tsai Ing-wen, whose support rate rose from 36.3 (June) to 37.2 per cent (July). Both the ruling and opposition camps have been plagued by negative developments over the past several months, Focus Taiwan quotes the GVRC’s director Tai Li-An, with controversy surrounding the DPP’s legislators-at-large roster and factional strife [..] also posing challenges to Tsai’s presidential bid, and recent farmers’ protests over the Ma administration’s land expropriation policy and glut-driven slumps in some farm produce prices, as well as squabbles between the KMT and its allies such as the People First Party and the New Party affecting Ma’s support rate.

In terms of foreign policy, the most striking issue quoted by Focus Taiwan is that 50.5 per cent of respondents believe that Ma would sign a peace agreement with China, while only 35.6 per cent expected the two sides to move toward unification. Numbers like these, which seem to expect peace and a continuing status quo at the same time, would suggest that Ma is expected to deliver almost ideal results in cross-straits relations. But then, domestic issues are apparently the correspondents’ main concerns.

Tsai Ing-wen was campaigning in Taichung on Thursday.



Ma, Tsai neck and neck, Taipei Times, July 22, 2011
“No Agricultural Development”, Taipei Times, July 22, 2011



4 Comments to “Taiwan Survey: 50.5 Per Cent Expect Peace Agreement with China, if Ma is Reelected”

  1. Hey man, I have a question regarding the word “expect” used in your title and content.

    Title: “Taiwan Survey: 50.5 Per Cent Expect Peace Agreement with China, if Ma is Reelected”

    Doesn’t it sound like :

    “50.5% “would like” to have a peace agreement with China if Ma re-elected?”

    If yes, this would be a misleading statement. The original description is 50.5% “believe” Ma would sign, not “expect”.

    Or do I misunderstand the meaning of “expect” ?


  2. According to the “Free Dictionary, there are a number of possible equivalents:


    a. To look forward to the probable occurrence or appearance of: expecting a telephone call; expects rain on Sunday.
    b. To consider likely or certain: expect to see them soon. See Usage Note at anticipate.
    2. To consider reasonable or due: We expect an apology.
    3. To consider obligatory; require: The school expects its pupils to be on time.
    4. Informal To presume; suppose.

    In the sense of hoping for something, it would be
    1. To look forward to the birth of one’s child. Used in progressive tenses: His sister is expecting in May.
    2. To be pregnant. Used in progressive tenses: My wife is expecting again.

    Unless the pregnancy is unwanted, of course.

    Either way, if a peace treaty with China was available without moving closer to “unification”, that would be good news, wouldn’t it?
    I’m not sure either about the quality of the question that led to the assessment, or the respondents’ clarity of judgment, though.


  3. From the definition, looks like it could go either way.

    As for your not sure:

    “I’m not sure either about the quality of the question that led to the assessment, or the respondents’ clarity of judgment, though.”

    I believe the original statement made it clear by using the word “believe.”


  4. To me, the 50.5 / 35.6 combination seems to suggest that almost 15 per cent of respondents expect in a combination of a peace treaty plus the status quo – unless the second rate comes from respondents who expect no peace treaty. If this relates to the same respondents, their view would probably be unrealistic.


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