Conspiracies and Control: no Detailed Plans for Currency War yet, but let’s attack Arrogant Abe

American, European and Japanese efforts to spark growth could devolve into a currency war, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), on Wednesday, interpreted remarks by Gao Xiqing, president of China’s CIC sovereign-wealth fund. Japan should not use its neighbors as a “garbage bin”, Gao was quoted. The WSJ’s Lingling Wei suggests that [t]he focus on Japan and the yen has taken some heat off Beijing, long accused by critics of artificially holding down the value of the yuan, Wei wrote in an additional article on Wednesday. Gao said that [o]ur job is to preserve the value of the hard-earned savings of the Chinese people.

Ever since the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694, behind almost every big global change, there had been the shadow of international finance and capital, Fu Bilan (付碧莲), a regular contributor to (or regularly republished by) People’s Daily online, mused in an article published by PD online on Wednesday:

They master a country’s lifeline and hold a country’s political fate in their hands. By inciting political incidents, inducing economic crisis, they control the flow directions and the distribution of the world’s wealth. It can be said that a history of global finance is the history of a conspiracy of seeking domination over the wealth of humankind.
自1694年英格兰银行成立以来的300多年间，几乎每一场世界重大变故背后，都能看到国际金融资本势力的身影。他们通过左右一国的经济命脉掌握国家的政治命运。通过煽动政治事件、诱发经济危机，控制着世界财富的流向与分配。可以说，一部世界金融史，就是一部谋求主宰人类财富的阴谋史。

China’s central bank is well prepared to react to a currency war, adds Fu. However, a currency war could be avoided. The latest G-20 meeting had drawn a few lines, such as restricting monetary policies to domestic functions. The G-20 meeting had also expressed the hope that monetary policies would not lead to competitive devaluation. But either way, China had taken responsive preparations to meet with any realities of quantative easing (量化宽松) that might occur abroad.

And of course, Fu Bilan hopes for some guiding policy decisions from the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress – both of who are currently holding their annual plenary meetings.

The – pretty long – article is much more technical than what these short excerpts might suggest, but I can’t help feeling that some of its paragraphs were written in celebration of the life of Hugo Chavez. The world of finance is evil, of course – with the exception of China‘s world of finance.

However, there also seems to be a reluctance to discuss what measures China’s monetary-policy planners have in mind to react to a currency war. One of China’s deputy central bank directors, Yi Gang (易纲), was quoted on Sunday with remarks about taking realities of quantative easing on the part of foreign central banks into account, but no details were mentioned then, either.

For the time being, the wargames, at least in the press, seem to focus on multinational institutions, and the obvious target, again, is Japan:

Japan’s prime minister Abe shamelessly delcared that a Japanese national should routinely be appointed as the post of the Asian Development Bank’s first director. China should team up with ASEAN and other countries to smash their fond dream.
日本首相安倍大言不惭，宣称亚行行长一职应按惯例由日本人续任，中国应该联合东盟及其他国家打破其美梦。

China’s nationalist Huanqiu Shibao didn’t even have to think this latest little conspiracy in international finance up – they are quoting “The Sun” (太陽報) from Hong Kong.

Patriotism won’t provide you with detailed plans for a currency war. But it helps to kill time until it arrives.

Generosity and Truthfulness: 12th CPPCC 1rst Session opens in Beijing

The first Session of the 12th Chinese “Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference” (CPPCC, 中国人民政治协商会议) opened in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing at 7 a.m. GMT this morning, reports the BBC‘s Mandarin service. Member of the permanent committee of the politburo Yu Zhengsheng presides (正声将), and outgoing chairman Jia Qinglin (贾庆林) delivered his last work report. Yu Zhengsheng, formerly party secretary in Shanghai, is expected to succeed Jia Qinglin as CPPCC chairman. The BBC’s reporter Sha Lei (沙磊, apparently John Sudworth) as saying that some measures had been taken to reflect new CCP secretary general Xi Jinping‘s emphasis on thriftiness during the CPPCC sesson as well as during the “National People’s Congress” session which takes place simultaneously. Among other things, less roads than during previous CPPCC and NPC meetings are expected to be sealed off. The BBC also refers to a People’s Daily editorial published on Sunday.

Sohu republished the editorial from People’s Daily, also on Sunday. People’s Daily’s editorial headline  was unity is strength, only democracy is vitality. Sohu’s version carries To govern, the party needs to be generous; CPPCC delegates need to speak the truth as the headline.

Some of the editorial’s remarks are actually Xi Jinping quotes, possibly made on several occasions, but certainly on February 6, when meeting people from all democratic parties’ central committees, old and new leaders from the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and personalities without party membership to celebrate Spring Festival together.

People’s Daily online Sohu also displays emoticons for readers to express their feelings, but during the past six or seven hours, only 24 netizens (apparently) cared to “vote”.

The Feelings of the Masses

On Sohu, a netizen (If I’m translating the emotes correctly) may choose to be moved (感动 – 0), surprised (惊讶 – 9), in awe/supportive? (给力 – 8), mad (抓狂 – 4), or pondering (思考 – 3).

However, more than two-thousand comments appear to have been made, and those found on the latest page are either supportive, or stating conventional words of wisdom about generosity and truthfulness.

Obituary: Stéphane Hessel, 1917 – 2013

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Main Links:

» Stéphane Hessel, gentleman indigné, Le Monde, December 23, 2011 / February 27, 2013
» 《愤怒吧！》： 93岁愤怒战士一夜爆红, Beijing News, April 11, 2011

Links within blockquotes added during translation.

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Hessel was born German, grew up French, and became a French citizen in 1939. He took part in the formulation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, and never stopped promoting its values, Le Monde wrote in December 2011 (article updated on February 27, 2013).

He had joined the résistance in 1941. He had been arrested, tortured, and survived the Buchenwald concentration camp.

And his hope was contagious (Le gentleman indigné, dont l’espérance est contagieuse).

He was also a diplomat. Compromise was hardly something foreign to him. But to react to wrongs seems to have been second nature to him.

On October 20, 2010, on his 93rd birthday, his booklet “Indignez-vous”, Time for Outrage, was published in France, with more than two million copies sold in France, and almost two million more in the rest of the world. He published another edition soon after, describing his admiration for Eleanor and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Indignez-vous was followed by “Engagez-vous”, Get involved, came next.

Counter-espionage was Hessel’s job from 1941, when he followed General de Gaulle to London, a correspondent for Beijing News wrote  from Paris, in April 2011, six months after “Time for Anger” had been published:

In March 1944, he was assigned to organize the resistance network in Paris, and to gather intelligence for the allied troops as they prepared to enter continental Europe. Named “Ge Like”, he secretly entered France, but was soon betrayed and then arrested by the Gestapo. Neither punishment nor lure by promises led to the results [his captors] desired, and Hessel was then transferred to the Buchenwald concentration camp on August 8, 1944, only days before the liberaton of Paris. He later wrote a detailed description of these experiences, in “Danse avec le Siècle”.
1941年，他为追随戴高乐将军来到伦敦，从事反间谍的侦查行动。1944年3月，他受命组织联络巴黎的抵抗网络、为盟军登陆搜集情报，化名“格里科”秘密潜入法国。由于叛徒的出卖，他很快便被盖世太保所捕获。刑逼利诱毫无收获后，8月8日埃塞尔被押解往德国布痕瓦尔德集中营，而这仅仅就是巴黎解放的前几天。之后他在自传《世纪之舞》中对这段经历有着详细的记述。

His narrow escape from death – by obtaining the identity of a fellow inmate who had died of typhus – inspired him.

Just as Hessel said: “this kind of leap from death, back into life makes him the more determined to enter the enthusiasm of global politics” (正如埃塞尔自己所说的：“这种死里逃生经历更加坚定了他介入世界的政治热情”).

The article’s description of Hessel’s post-war life included his co-authorship of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:

To help this document of tremendous historic value obtain acknowledgment as [a set of] universal values, Hessel and his colleagues went to great pains to make it suitable for East and West, for ideologies, and the different situations of countries and nations.
为了使这份人类历史上极为重要的文件获得公认的普世价值，为了能使其适应东西方、意识形态、国家种族不同的状况，达成一致的认同，埃塞尔和他的同事们费尽心机，奔走疾呼。

There was nothing new in the novel, “Time to get Angry”, and it provided neither a logical analysis of the problems faced by humankind today, nor practical methodology for dealing with them, the Beijing News author quoted Hessel, in 2011, and added that its fascination was to be found in the emotions it stirred, and the lesson it taught: not to allow evil to repeat itself.

An initially small, unobtrusive book, written without much preparation, of only some thirty pages including footnotes and a postscript, but inevitable content, unexpectedly led to this kind of reading, discussion and dissemination. (Frequently, customers went to a bookstore and bought ten or more copies for their families and friends). While many publishers call this a coincidence, many others explore the reasons for the book’s strong sales. There is this global upheaval, and worried people are seeking some relief. This small book is just right in its simplicity, legibility, its sentiment and excitement, and its catchiness. [...] And secondly, the author’s personal charm adds an envelope of respectability and trustworthiness to this small book. It seems that only with the historical experience and the energetic and passionate involvement of this 93-year-old warrior, a man may be qualified to appeal to public enthusiasm.
一本事先毫不张扬，也无甚精心企划的小书；一本加上注释和后记才三十多页，内容无可避免的略显单薄的小册子，竟然引发了如此的阅读、讨论和传播（经常有顾客到书店一买十多册赠与身边的家人朋友）。在大多出版界人士大呼偶然的同时，也有不少人研究它畅销的必然所致。首先，世界局势的动荡，对未来的担忧让人们急需找到一个释放内心情绪的出口，而这本小册子正好简单、易懂，情绪激昂、朗朗上口。 [...] 其次，作者的个人魅力无疑为这本小书笼罩了一层令人尊敬和信赖的气场。似乎，唯有这种经历过历史，并以自身全部的精力和激情投入其中的长者（93岁的老战士）才有资格以这种语气号召起大众的热情。

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Related

Hessel dies at 95, The Guardian, Febr 27, 2013
A Resistance Hero Fires up the French, NYT, March 9, 2011

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Blogging Break: Plus ca change, plus c’est Deng (or Franco)

If KT takes a break from blogging, why shouldn’t JR? I’m thinking of a duration of ten days or so – but if Jiang Zemin leaves this world, or Deng Xiaoping rises from the dead, or whatever kind of colossal thing occurs, JR will be here to make sense of it for you.

foggy day

A look back on the CCP’s 18th national congress: Felix Lee, a correspondent for Germany’s green-leaning daily taz, runs a China blog at a German weekly, Die Zeit. He’s usually very positive about, as we like to say, “China” – certainly from my perspective, but such optimism might sometimes give way to Welsh rats. His latest blogpost refers to Zhang Dejiang and Liu Yunshan as the new pigheads in the politbureau (Die neuen Betonköpfe im Politbüro).

And expectations towards reformers like Wang Yang had been too high. After all, even Wen Jiabao never had his way with more inner-party democracy, during his ten-year tenure.

Well, in fact, Wen Jiabao had his way with very few things (and I’m not sure that I can remember any, now).

I don’t know where many China watchers took their optimism from. The party had documented its schedule very clearly, in fall 2011. Now, I’m not saying that I could have predicted the composition of the 18th politbureau – but whoever would have entered the standing committee, would have had to stick to the line. If Wang Yang had entered the standing committee, it would have meant that he isn’t that reformist after all, or that he’s prepared to become less so.

But of course, Felix Lee doesn’t consider China’s future hopeless. After all, society is changing bigtime, he writes. Three controversial industrial projects had been thwarted by citizens this year, he writes.

Then again, you can discuss industrial plants with anyone, anyway – even with Zhang Dejiang. To object to them is no principal contradiction (主要矛盾).

The party published their line, Hu Jintao re-iterated it a few weeks later, but most correspondents seemed to take that lightly, or as some funny little theater. As if the document had been written (and agreed to by outgoing and incoming dictators) for fun, or out of boredom.

Hint (and, granted, no imperative logical connection): a year earlier, in September 2010, Wen Jiabao had made his last serious foray on those pig-headed fortifications: he talked to journalists from Hong Kong and Macau, about the need for political reforms. That was in New York, apparently. People’s Daily disagreed. Wen insisted. Half a year, there was the cultural decision.

Same with other concepts, such as social management. There weren’t a few Zhou Yongkang‘s sitting around a table and picking that stuff out of their nose.

Either, too many correspondents in China have no sense for political trends, or they don’t report their real assessment, because they wouldn’t sell. Or maybe something else I can’t imagine right now.

Either way: “staff issues” within the CCP are, in my view, hopelessly overemphasized in our press. Yes, it’s a dictatorship. Yes, it’s a totalitarian system. But it’s a collective oligarchy leadership – pragmatic, maybe, but not unideological.

What interested me during the run-up to the 18th national congress was how the system tried to shape their citizens’ perception of their (local) realities. Some of the derivatives from the State Information Office’s publicity work prescriptions were – just my impression – written somewhat tongue-in-cheek by cheesed-off journalists who had to work with those guidelines. But that, too, shapes reality. It shows the small man who he is, and who they are. Dictators aren’t out with baseball bats to hit you every day. Quite obviously, harmony is cheaper.

bright day

That’s the year that was, I suppose, in terms of China and politics. The American fiscal cliff is moving to the fore, and so is the Euro crisis. Talking about baseball bats, democratic governments seem to know how to use them, too. Henryk M. Broder, not a great friend of demonstrators, I believe, but no great friend of the European project either, contrasted two European “events” on Thursday: Viviane Reding, EU Commissioner for justice, basic rights and citizenship, celebrated “a historic day” for womens’ rights in listed companies: by 2020, 40 percent of board seats would have to be for women. Patrician daughters will be delighted to hear that, of course. But some of Ms Reding’s smaller sisters were protesting in Madrid, about very different worries.

Clubbing is so much fun, isn’t it? Maybe Deng is already back from the dead. And if you see Francisco Franco dining and sniffing snow in some hip Madrid institution, don’t be too surprised. Chances are that he’s always been with us.

Recommended Links: Tibet, Senkakus, and Revolutionary Opera

Woeser posted her observations about a propaganda film apparently produced by CCTV, and available in Chinese and English on YouTube. High Peaks Pure Earth translated Woeser’s blogpost, which had previously been broadcast on Radio Free Asia (RFA):

How CCTV’s Propaganda Film Depicts the Tibetan Self-Immolators.

Another East-Western beauty contest has been going on there on the Peking Duck. The threads are often very helpful for me to reflect on my own views – as a German, my country’s past is similar to Japan’s. The difference is that the whole world seems to believe that in Germany, we have done “a much better job” at addressing the crimes of the past. That’s certainly true when it comes to history books, but few people seem to remember then U.S. president Ronald Reagan‘s visit to the Bitburg Cemetary, where members of the SS are buried, along with Wehrmacht soldiers – at the insistence of then German chancellor Helmut Kohl. I’m not going explain my views here; they can be found there, among many others.

But there’s one thing I’d like to note here. Too many people like to make fun of – frequently rather brainless, I agree – Chinese protesters, or about fenqings who show up there in the threads. I suspect that to make fun of them serves at least two purposes: to laugh away worries about a possible war, and to feel morally superior.

If “we” – the West, or the Western alliances – were “superior”, our governments would send a clear message to Beijing, even if only behind the scenes. If the CCP leaders intend to use our countries and their people – i. e. us – as bugaboos to increase “social cohesion” at home, we can’t look at China as a friendly country. If the CCP – a totalitarian regime, after all – discretionarily uses economic means to “punish” Japan, no other country’s companies should be allowed to profit from gaps provided by such boycotts and sanctions.

I’m not suggesting that no business should be done with China. But when we do business with a state-capitalist country, we’ll need a state-capitalist approach ourselves – unless we want to allow a totalitarian regime to play one country off against the other. As long as we allow this to happen, we have no reason to make fun of useful Chinese idiots.

Last but not least, the DPRK Sea of Blood Opera Troupe is or (probably) was on tour in China. If you are a revolutionary-opera connoisseur, and intend not to miss their next time in China (or elsewhere in the world), feed your anticipation with this review on Sino-NK. It starts with Act II, and contains links to two previous instalments of the review.

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Related

» Good Ganbu’s Friday Nights, Nov 29, 2009

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Once a Current Opinion: about progress

In 1921, an unnamed author with an American magazine, Current Opinion, wrote this:

People do not want, first of all, to progress. They want “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness,” and they only accept progress as a means to this end.

Hence when progress threatens to bring the whole structure of society down in a crash, the people revolt against revolt.^*)

The author was on the safe side with a number of statements about the past – the past as seen from 1921. Understandably, he was not so inerrant about the future as seen from 1921. The “revolt against the revolt”, in his example and view, was Italian fascism, and the revolt it “revolted against” was Bolshevism.

What caught my eyes were the first two lines in the above quote – about what people want. I’m wondering if it is a statement most people worldwide would subscribe to today, and how they would differ, depending on who and where they are.

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Note

^*) Current Opinion, October 1921, page 430 (via oldmagazines.com)

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Related

» How Chiang Kai-shek Blew it, Dec 20, 2010

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Smart Public, part 2: True Colors

Dissatisfaction drives change – that’s conventional wisdom. And it’s not necessarily true. Dissatisfaction may dominate partytalk, just as well, after a few beers, or whatever you drink. If there’s change also depends on how many people are dissatisfied, and on how acutely dissatisfied they are.  Public issues won’t necessarily create anger that wuld lead to change. Rescue programs for the bailout of  system-relevant banks with public money may anger many tax payers, but as long as government incurs further public debt than levying an extra tax for the very purpose on the public, people, especially “small” tax payers, may put up with it. And they will, more and more frequently, draw the conclusions that politics is

• totally rotten business and
• therefore not their business.

When I explained why I believe that Wikileaks can’t work, I put it this way:

There is no effective shortcut. Only individual judgment and the preparedness to organize to accurately defined ends can be effective – but they require patience. It takes education, year after year. It takes preparedness to learn – not just of one organization, but by countless individuals. And – and that’s something the existence of Wikileaks should help us to understand – it will take media and journalists who take their tasks seriously, and who decide responsibly and who account to their readers.

It will take media and journalists who help the public to perform.

I haven’t changed my views on Wikileaks, i. e. on a government’s rights to keep part of its information confidential. But my views on patience are changing. Four years after the global financial crisis, very little has been done in Germany when it comes to legislation that would make system-relevant banks, rather than public funds, responsible for their own rescue. But Greece is required to impose austerity on those of its citizens who are hit hardest by such measures. That’s wrong – and that needs to change.

The need for change is strongly felt, even if recommendations about the required measures to make change happen differs widely. James Fishkin, a U.S. academic, recommends deliberative democracy. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – but it can’t replace a freely-elected parliament. A freely-elected parliament, on the other hand, is usually susceptible to influences that are hardly “democratic” – business lobbies of all kinds, not least the financial industry. Deliberative democracy, especially when under the influence of lobbies which “provide relevant information”, is unlikely to change that.

During the 1990s, Johannes Heinrichs, a German philosopher, discussed ways to rebuild democracy. He advocated a four-fold parliament, whose branches would deal with the for fields of economics, politics, culture, and fundamental values. The latter branch would define the framework for the three other branches. Heinrichs apparently saw – or maybe still sees – his concept as a practical reaction to the ways economics have dominated parliamentary democracy, and to a global crisis of democracy.

The concept may look radical – but it hardly is. Ask any politician what should dominate political or individual decisions – economics or values. Two likely answers are “values”, or “both”. Values, that is, in theory. And “both” means nothing. That’s the good thing about practical, organizational recommendations. Only once you discuss which road map should be implemented, you’ll really need to show your colors.

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Related

» Smart Public, July 25, 2012

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Alleged Joint Letter: Wen Jiabao subverts Socialist Market Economy

The BBC‘s Chinese website quotes Japan’s Kyodo News Agency as reporting that “conservatives” had written a joint letter to the central committee in July this year, demanding the dismissal of chief state councillor Wen Jiabao. The letter, written by more than 1,600 cadres, scholars et al had accused Wen of subverting the foundations of the socialist market economy. Accusations reportedly leaked to Kyodo and Yomiuri Shimbun suggested that Wen turned a deaf ear to state-owned enterprises’ staff, broke state enterprises up at his own discretion, and favored foreign investment, thus bringing around growing income disparities.

Wen was also accused of pursuing the goal of a multi-party political system – and of having ordered the closure of websites propagandizing Marxism and Maoist thought. This had been a serious violation of the people’s freedom of speech.

The letter had also requested leniency for former Chongqing party secretary Bo Xilai.

Among the signatories – again, reportedly and not verified, apparently – were former National Bureau of Statistics director Li Chengrui, and former state council economy, technology, and social development institute’s adviser Ma Bin. According to Yoimuri Shimbun, several Beijing University (Beida) professors were also among the signatories.

Kyodo and Yoimuri Shimbun apparently published their reports on Wednesday.

If such efforts stand any chance of success seems to be an idle question – Wen will retire early next year anyway. Rather than at the man and his top post, this kind of letter – if it actually exists – would be targeted at his and his allies’ supposed agenda. The letter would rather be a bit of applied “inner-party democracy”. A joint letter to the central committee is hardly the way CCP top brass would build alliances, or attack rival factions.

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Related

» China Shuts Down Utopia, Guardian, April 6, 2012

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