Taiwan Military: Placing their Orders

Concerns about Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s security stretch beyond the pan-green camp. The China Post, KMT-leaning, writes:

As economic integration is likely to continue across the Taiwan Strait, if Taiwan has a sense of self confidence in its economic and military sectors, the United States should carefully take into consideration the impact of any further “strategic ambiguity” on its arms sales to Taiwan.

Taiwan needs to enhance its economic competitiveness through the United States, among others, but the island still needs to strengthen its military in order to raise the cost of coercion, ensure some degree of deterrence vis-a-vis China’s PLA and negotiate from a position of strength.

Germany’s weekly Die Zeit reports today that president Ma Ying-jeou instructed the ministry of defense to compile an  order list, including MK-54 torpedos, dozens of M1A2-Panzer and amphibian landing crafts.

Taiwan’s government may intend to test its American lifeline of arms supplies. On Wednesday, Taiwanlink recommended that

the Ma administration would be well-advised to submit a letter of request (LOR) for price and availability (P&A) data for 66 F-35B fighters to the Obama administration. And send a copy to the key staffers on the Hill to make sure they know that an LOR has been submitted.

They might be doing just that.

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Related
Taiwan’s Armed Forces Structure, Periscope, as of Nov 1, 2009

Update/Related
Hu pins ECFA with label of “anti-independence”, Liberty Times / That’s Impossible, July 19, 2010

India-Pakistan: a Case for a New Approach

All India Radio‘s (AIR) external service usually runs an enjoyable program in English for its overseas listeners. But sometimes, one could do without their news commentary – that’s when they are flooded with demands on how Pakistan should do its homework in making the region safer. Many of these demands may be entirely justified – but when it can make an outsider feel inundated with prayer wheel of serial complaints, actual recipients, and other regional listeners, may get bored.

Complaints about China building a string of pearls seem to ask for a comprehensive Indian strategy of its own, too, rather than bitching. To be “upset” may be a natural reaction. A naval (diplomacy)  strategy – in progress – may be a useful reaction. But while much of Sri Lanka’s cozy relations with Beijing can be attributed to America keeping its distance, given Colombo’s dismal human rights record, another factor, referred to as  India’s concept of its neighbors’ client states status by the Vancouver Sun‘s Jonathan Manthorpe, certainly plays a role, too. Using China for hedging purposes is a natural reaction from India’s neighbors.

India’s press is constantly full of advice. One that might catch the eyes these days is this one:

Bilateral talks between the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan held in Islamabad on 15 July 2010 ended in an unseemly public spat at a press conference,

writes Arvind Gupta of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi, and finds that the positions on both sides have hardened. India should engage with Pakistan’s real decisionmakers, suggests Gupta:

It is in the nature of India-Pakistan relations that emotions overtake reason and important issues are lost sight of. In the present episode, Qureshi is being held as a villain but the fact is that he is a minor player in the scheme of decision making in Pakistan. His demeanour may have played a role in the breakdown of the talks but that role would at best be minor. The real decision makers in Pakistan continue to be the army. The civilian government has little freedom, if any, in decision making. The Americans have understood this. They prefer to deal directly with the military. The dealings with the civilian authorities are only for the sake of form.

India needed to understand that while Pakistan’s army was no longer in charge of the country’s day-to-day affairs, it was still the key decisionmaker on strategic issues: policy on Afghanistan, India, US and China, writes Gupta.

Besides, once tempers had cooled, India should think about

reaching out to the non-official sections of Pakistani society. After all, Pakistanis talk to the Kashmiri separatists all the time in full public knowledge. Why can India not develop links with those sections of Pakistani society who may have views different from that of the government? India has legitimate interests in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which is an integral part of India.

Whatever steps may be taken to improve India-Pakistani relations, smaller but tangible ones look more promising than big projects. On Monday, Kabul and Islamabad signed an agreement that would grant land-locked Afghanistan  transit through neighbouring Pakistan,  and therefore access to the sea, and – indirectly – markets in India. It might do regional security a lot of good – even if India is no immediate stakeholder in the deal.

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Related
“Military foiled Talks”, Hindustan Times, July 18, 2010
China’s Neighborhood, July 18, 2010
China, India Invest in Africa, FTKMC, June 28, 2010
“Reflecting the Diversity”, November 4, 2009
Nepal (Tag) »

Schützenfest

Countryside Schuetzenfest

It’s the season again – first in the villages, and in the cities later in the year.

An enlightening (but abridged) video can be found here.

Tourism: Carrots and Sticks

Apparently as a reaction to the Dalai Lama‘s visit to Kaohsiung, Beijing told Chinese tour groups to call off planned trips to the southern Taiwanese city in September 2009. The China Times quoted unnamed tourism operators as saying the Dalai Lama’s visit to Kaohsiung was the main reason for the cancellations, causing an estimated six million Taiwan dollars (185,000 US dollars) in lost revenue. Beijing also voiced concerns over Kaohsiung film festival’s plan to show “Ten Conditions of Love” on Kadeer.

Beijing makes regular use of an agreement of 2008 that allows Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan as travelling groups, to put economic pressure on Taiwanese activities it dislikes.

Apparently in the wake of a visit by Rebiya Kadeer‘s daughter to Taiwan this week, Xinmin Net (Shanghai) carries a story about Frank Lin Fu-nan (林富男), a man with functions, among others, as the Kaohsiung Tourism Association’s Honorary President, leader of an alliance of tourism-related businesses in the Kaohsiung and Pingtung areas, and as an advisor with the KMT Central Headquarters (中國國民黨中央黨部).

Travel groups of the mainland’s second-largest company of everyday-use articles (5,200 employees) visited Taiwan from July 14 to 18, with the potential of creating 300,000,000 New Taiwan dollars’ trade opportunities, but Kaohsiung got no share in this “big piece of cake”. Lin Funan of the Gaoxiong-Pinggu Tourism Association said in an interview that this was an “alarming message” (“警讯”) to Gaoxiong’s tourism industry, and a blow, too.

One batch of the travellers will stay for seven, another for nine days. The tour of seven days includes Yehliu, the Taipei 101 Building, the Shihlin and Feng Jia night markets, Hsitou, the Sun-Moon Lake and other tourist destinations, and the nine-days tour adds Kenting, Hengchun, Cape Eluanbi and other southern Taiwanese travel routes.

The first travel group entered from Kaohsiung Siaogang Airport on July 14 without staying in the city, and immediately entered the travel coach to Kenting (Pingdung County, 屏东垦丁) to stay there for two nights, then transferred to Taizhong, leaving out the two important southern cities of Gaoxiong and Tainan.

Gaoxiong-Pinggu Tourism Association’s Lin Funan believes that although a portion of mainland tourists has actually started coming back to Gaoxiong now, the fact that such a big travel group goes to the lengths of staying two nights in Kenting but doesn’t even arrange for a one-night stay in Gaoxiong shows that the prejudice among them that the atmosphere is shrowded with the “Rebiya” and “Dalai Lama” events is still not completely gone.

Lin Fulin says that usually, Gaoxiong hotels are cheaper than Kenting hotels, and with the summer holidays now, the Kending prices are higher than Gaoxiong’s, and hotel rooms harder to book than in Gaoxiong. By experience, one could say that mainland tourists stayed in Kenting for one, and in Gaoxiong for another night, and opportunities for staying in Kending for two nights weren’t great. That another mainland travel group had left Gaoxiong out was an alarming message for Gaoxiong.

He said that Kaohsiung’s city government should strengthen the promotion of Kaohsiung, and secondly, there wasn’t sufficient investment in in touristical scenic spots. Besides, he suggests that mainland tourists should be encouraged with package measures and premium programs.

I’m not sure if I got all the numbers right – the number of Chinese tourists who can travel to Taiwan at the same time is limited to some extent (but regulations are continuously being liberalized). Lin Fu-nan didn’t let the Chinese boycotts of Kaohsiung corrupt him, but if Beijing controls the travel routes of Chinese tourists in accordance with its political agenda, his suggestions for additional measures to make Kaohsiung more attractive in terms of tourism – for Chinese tourists in particular – seem to make little sense.

If Kaohsiung has the potential for more tourism – and there are voices which suggest that -, it may be a good idea to invest further in the city’s attractiveness – but for tourism in general. Incentives for Chinese tourists will only make sense once Beijing drops its – direct or propagandistic – “political guidance”.

Besides, if other cities in Taiwan get rewards from China for being opportunistic, Kaohsiung could cultivate its role as a city of free speech, and politically uninhibited cultural events. There wouldn’t even be a need to discuss the “timing” of such events.

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Related:
Spying Suspect released one day after arrest, Taipei Times, July 18, 2010
ECFA: China’s Primacy of Politics, July 3, 2010

Rebiya Kadeer: Taiwan is a Free Country

Rebiya Kadeer has been on a three-year blacklist in Taiwan for some time, as Guts United Taiwan (GUT), an organization which blends the promotion of movies, music, and political goals, reportedly found out last week after inviting the exiled Uyghur leader to attend screenings of the Ten Conditions of Love (愛的十個條件) documentary.

KMT: Beware of the Muzzymonster

Kadeer’s daughter, Raela Tosh, is currently in Taipei. On Sunday, she told a news conference that her mother, who was barred from visiting Taiwan for three years last year, believes she will be allowed to visit Taiwan some day because it is a free country. Tosh said that she wanted to help Taiwanese people understand that the seemingly peaceful scenes seen in Xinjiang were false.

AFP writes that a decision by the Taiwanese ministry of the interior (MOI) to deny Rebiya Kadeer entry was made in September last year.

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Related
Richard McGregor “perversely flattered”, The Australian, July 19, 2010
Ma Zhaoxu: Very Thought-Provoking Question, Nov 2, 2009
Vitaly A. Rubin (1976): Thoughts do not Die, Nov 29, 2008

China’s Neighborhood, July 2010

1. Typical Cold-War Thinking

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang‘s (秦刚) Regular Press Conference on July 15, 2010

Q: The ROK and the US are planing to hold joint military exercises both in the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan, with the US aircraft carrier participating in the drill to be held in the Sea of Japan. How do you comment? Second, US government officials said that US aircraft carrier George Washington took part in the military exercise in the Yellow Sea last October, which did not draw open objections from China. What is the difference between the situations now and then?

A: On the two questions, our position is consistent and clear. We firmly oppose any foreign military vessel or plane conducting activities in the Yellow Sea and China’s coastal areas undermining China’s security interests. Under the current circumstances, we hope relevant parties exercise calmness and restraint and refrain from activities that would escalate tension in the region.

问：韩国和美国打算在黄海和日本海同时进行联合军事演习，特别是美航母将参加在日本海的军演，中方对此有何评论？第二，美国政府官员表示，美“乔 治·华盛顿号”航母去年10月份曾参加过在黄海举行的军演，当时中国并没有公开反对，去年10月份的情况跟现在有什么差别？

答：对于你提到的这两个问题，我们的立场是一贯的、明确的。我们坚决反对任何外国军用舰机在黄海以及其它中国近海从事影响中国安全利益的活动。我们 也希望在当前形势下，有关各方保持冷静和克制，不做加剧地区局势紧张的事情。

[...]

Q: If the US and the ROK forge ahead with the exercise in July, will China and the DPRK hold exercises in the western coast of the Korean Peninsula  in response?

A: I wonder whether this question represent your own opinion or some media’s view which I have already read. This is a typical Cold-War thinking, dividing Northeast Asia and Asia-Pacific into different military blocs and viewing regional security from a confrontational even antagonistic perspective. Now, the situation has changed so much that no single country or military bloc can resolve regional security issues alone which ask for joint efforts of regional countries. Countries should enhance mutual-trust and strengthen cooperation through dialogue and negotiation so as to jointly safeguard peace and stability of the region.

问：如果韩国和美国在7月举行军演，中国和朝鲜是否计划在朝鲜半岛西部海域也举行军演？

答：我不知道这个问题反映的是你自己的观点还是一些人或一些媒体的观点，我确实也看到这种观点见诸报端。这是一种典型的“冷战”思维，把东北亚地 区、亚太地区分割成不同的军事同盟，用冷战那种对立、对抗的眼光看待本地区安全。现在时代已经变化、发展了，没有任何一个国家或军事同盟能够单独解决地区 安全问题，这需要本地区各国共同努力，通过对话、谈判增进互信，加强合作，共同维护地区的和平与稳定。

English: http://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t717494.htm
Chinese: http://www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/pds/wjdt/fyrbt/t717282.htm

2. India’s Total Collapse

China entered Pakistan’s nuclear market with a civilian nuclear co-operation agreement in June, to build two reactors there, in addition to two existing civilian ones and one for military use. Pakistan would like a similar deal with the US, according to reports quoted by the BBC, but continued fears over its proliferation record remain a major stumbling block. Harsh V. Pant, researcher at King’s College London, concludes that China is trying its best to maintain nuclear parity between India and Pakistan. Harsh provides his tally of Chinese arms supplies to Pakistan, and points out that

In the last two decades, the two states have been actively involved in a range of joint ventures including JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, and Babur cruise missile, the dimensions of which exactly replicate the Hong Niao Chinese cruise missile. The JF-17 venture is particularly significant given its utility in delivering nuclear weapons. In a major move for China’s indigenous defence industry, China is also supplying its most advanced home-made combat aircraft, the third-generation J-10 fighter jets to Pakistan, in a deal worth around $6 billion. Beijing is helping Pakistan build and launch satellites for remote sensing and communication even as Pakistan is reportedly already hosting a Chinese space communication facility at Karachi.

Harsh suggests that

[t]he Pakistani nuclear weapons programme is essentially an extension of the Chinese one. Despite being a member of the NPT, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and expertise and has provided critical assistance in the construction of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.

All that, plus Chinese guarantees for Pakistan’s security, thus preventing India’s dominance of South Asia by strengthening Pakistan. As India was rising in the global hierarchy, and America tried to carve out a strong partnership with India, China’s need for Pakistan was likely to grow further, writes Harsh. Therefore,

Indian policy makers would be well advised to disabuse themselves of the notion of a Sino-Indian rapprochement. China doesn’t do sentimentality in foreign policy, India should follow suit.

Ni Qiuluo (泥鳅罗), a Chinese blogger and military enthusiast, translated Harsh’s article, and delivers his own conclusion in a devastating headline:

India's Total Collapse

India’s Total Collapse: Sino-Pakistani J-10 fighter jet trade volume amounts to six billion US dollars (印度彻底崩溃：中巴歼10的交易总额达60 亿美元).

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Related
Make America Collapse, Febr 14, 2010

Cadres: We want to be Loved by You

Germany and China signed ten agreements on trade and relations during German chancellor Angela Merkel‘s visit to China, reports Bloomberg. If materialized, they would amount to 4.4 bn US dollars. In what Der Spiegel describes as a harmonious meeting between Merkel and Chinese chief state councillor Wen Jiabao, the political leaders discussed business, international initiatives such as joint action against climate change, and the openness of markets. It’s Merkel’s fourth visit to China as chancellor of Germany. According to AFP / the Sydney Morning Herald, Merkel prodded China to ease access to its markets.

“Chinese companies, like those of many other countries, enjoy very good access to the German market. We hope that German enterprises can enjoy the same access to the Chinese market,” she said.

On June 29, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC) published a business survey which, depending on interpretation, suggests that survey respondents are generally optimistic about growth in their respective business sectors in China, or that Chinese rules are unpredictable.

On Friday morning, during one-and-a-half hours of talks at the Great Hall of the People’s Fujian Hall, on a light note, Wen told Merkel that the German national soccer team’s performance had widened Germany’s influence in China, as it had been full of vitality and vigor. And during the following Sino-German Dialog Forum (中德对话论坛), the head of the Chinese side of the forum, CPPCC vice chairman Xu Kuangdi (徐匡迪) quoted latest surveys saying that every second German held a positive view of China, while 90 per cent of the Chinese public viewed Germany positively, which, he suggested, could have something to do with the world cup.

Does Crystal view Germany positively? - http://justrecently.wordpress.com/2010/06/12/world-soccer-cup-the-three-measurements/

The Chinese leadership pushes for EU recognition of China as a market economy, writes Der Spiegel. It’s not a matter of face, but of leverage in international negotiations, and a status that would make it difficult to accuse China of trade manipulations. The Asia Times explained more than five years ago what is involved:

[...] Having full market economy status (MES) is a valuable legal and trade appellation with implications for the issue of dumping, a major issue in the West.
Eventually MES will give Beijing extra leverage in negotiations when Chinese companies are accused of dumping their products at an unfairly low price on a foreign market.
Being a real market economy means, among other things, that the production costs of all goods and services are subject to the demands of market forces, without state interventions such as subsidies or price controls. This is important when a country is accused of exporting products at a price below their real production costs – or dumping, thereby shutting out those who “play by the rules”.

Meeting criteria isn’t the only factor. By the time the Asia Times published the article, three small countries – Malaysia, New Zealand, and Singapore – had recognized China as a full market economy. The big prizes, however, are the United States and the European Union. The Asia Times also provides an overview of how the market economy status of a country is evaluated.

China didn’t yet meet all requirements for such recognition, Merkel explained after her meeting with Wen, and added that intellectual property issues needed to be clarified.

While Xu Kuangdi only cited surveys concerning China’s image in Germany and vice versa, Yu Xiang, research fellow with European studies of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, suggests that while “Germany’s objective and impartial stance on the issue of China’s renminbi exchange rate and the Taiwan question has created a positive political atmosphere between the two nations“, “the German media, as well as some in the political and economic spheres, have expressed irrational antipathy toward the Asian nation“. “Some German media outlets have even lashed out at the Chinese government, doubting its legitimacy and governance ability.“

In discussions with cadres at the Communist Party’s Central Academy (中共中央党校) on Friday afternoon, Merkel was asked why the EU arms embargo was still in place. Merkel replied that the embargo wasn’t there  because of suspicions that Beijing might have “aggressive intentions”, but because of the state China was in domestically. People in Europe were “highly sensitive” about human rights in China. According to the same report by Der Spiegel, Wen Jiabao advised the friends at the media to provide more coverage about the bright sides of Sino-German relations.

Also on Friday afternoon, Merkel had a meeting with Chinese party and state chairman Hu Jintao.

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Related
“Euro Investment Continues”, BBC News, July 16, 2010
Shanghai Expo: Waiting Messages, May 18, 2010

Toilet Paper, for Starters

Wang Zhenyao (王振耀) resigned his post as an official with the Ministry of Civil Affairs’ disaster relief office this year to head the newly established Beijing Normal University One Foundation Philanthropy Research Institute (壹基金公益研究院), China Radio International quoted the Beijing Times on June 23. Wang currently attends a China-Europa Forum at Hong Kong Polytechnic University and was interviewed by Southern  Metropolis Daily there.

In the interview, he predicted that after charitable donations reached 200 bn Yuan, contradictions between China’s rich and poor could be resolved, and feelings of hatred towards the rich be eliminated. Wang  wants to encourage billionaires to contribute at least one million Yuan per year.

Wang expressed his hope that, together with the media, society’s rich could be pressured towards good intentions, and advocated the establishment of a merits list for the Pearl River Delta region, together with Southern Metropolis Daily and the paper’s online edition, to provide college dormitory toilets with toilet paper, and to influence more university students to show interest for the needs of ordinary people.

To start a wave of charity with a toilet-paper movement looks like an extremely modest start – but maybe this is what it means to say. The Global Times published an English version of Wang’s deliberations on Wednesday. Besides, Wang probably isn’t necessarily out of tune with the public when emphasizing the need to make toilet paper available.

When people in Wuhan were faced with a public toilet which banned the use of toilet people brought with themselves last month with a warning sign outside the place that contraventions would lead to severe punishment, a Hunan Online reporter apparently took a lot of time to investigate the motives of the most despotic public toilet in history. One of the civil servants the reporter phoned in the wake of his research asked to be quoted anonymously.

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Related
Japanese vs Chinese Toilet Paper, Japan Probe, July 12, 2010
China’s Rural Village Elections, Carter Center, May 4, 2010
Voting: One Village at a Time, Washington Post, June 14, 1998